pa discuss
Office: CTP
FXUS61 KCTP 130821
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
421 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Continued seasonably warm and humid through much of the coming
week
* Although at least hit and miss, afternoon and evening focused
showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, the
most widespread activity, featuring locally heavy downpours,
will be Sunday afternoon and evening.
* At this point, Tuesday looks like the driest day of the next
seven
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
Dewpoints in the 70s and U60s will not allow us any relief from
the muggy nights of late. Marine layer of moisture will move
back into Sern PA and perhaps into UNV/IPT later tonight. But,
the signal is less strong/less certain than it was for Fri
night. Will paint high sky cover for the SE half of the CWA
tonight. Fog is also a probability, but perhaps not as
widespread as Fri night. Will mention patchy fog for much of the
area.
POPS will stay in the 10-30 percent range overnight as several
weak shortwaves embedded in the SW flow aloft drift across a
weak frontal boundary over SW and Scent PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Morning cloud deck over the SE will dissipate, and perhaps
faster than Sat AM. Sfc wind will still be light and out of the
SE. Shear will be light, but not near-zero like it was on Sat,
generally 15-20KT. An actual short wave trough will be advancing
through PA on Sunday. PoPs will be the highest (70-100) they've
been for many days. PWAT a little higher than today/Sat. With
all that going for it, the atmosphere is primed for more heavy
rainers, but also more chc for severe gusts. Hail (at least
large hail) less likely than severe wind gusts on Sun aftn and
evening. SPC keeping on with the MRGL risk for most of our CWA,
and WPC Slight risk for excessive rainfall also continues, with
isolated locales having potential for heavier downpours.
Temps a secondary problem for Sun. The NBM looks fine with 80s
and perhaps someone touching 90F in srn Franklin Co.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The aforementioned slow-moving cold front will continue to
progress across central Pennsylvania Sunday night and throughout
the day on Monday, with current guidance progged to have the
surface cold front overhead by sunrise on Monday. Little
residence time in the warm sector will allow for less
destablization across the area, with dry air west of the cold
front allowing for drier conditions to prevail west-to-east as
the day progresses. Front pulls further east and out of the area
Monday evening into Tuesday morning, allowing for a brief
period of no precipitation across central Pennsylvania through
the morning hours on Tuesday.
As the cold front continues across central Pennsylvania on
Monday, PWATs in the 1.50"-2.00" range will continue to promote
some potential for isolated instances of flash flooding across
eastern Pennsylvania which remains consistent with WPC's
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Flooding potential will
also be exacerbated by antecedent rainfall, so will need to
continue to monitor rainfall trends through the weekend with
regards to the flooding threat on Monday.
Large-scale pattern remains fairly consistent; however,
allowing for continued chances for diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms across central Pennsylvania throughout much of the
long-term forecast period. Focus for precipitation Tuesday
afternoon/evening will be stationed across the southern tier of
Pennsylvania with increasing coverage during the afternoon hours
on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Elsewhere, look for VFR through shortly after midnight local
time, then a gradual decrease through MVFR to possibly IFR VSBYS
between 08-13Z Sunday.
Additionally, we fully expect another marine layer stratus cloud
deck to form and push inland bringing IFR to LIFR conditions
between 06-13Z Sunday (mainly impacting KLNS, KMDT and KIPT).
If anything, it could go a little farther westward by early
Sunday, with a low- level E-SE flow in place for at least parts
of the region. KLNS, KMDT, and KIPT have high confidence
(70-80%) of restrictions. We're less sure at KUNV and KAOO
(30-50%), while low cloud development seems unlikely at KJST and
KBFD. Fog is again expected, but only a 30-60pct chc of LIFR
conditions out away from the IFR/LIFR marine stratus deck.
Forcing moving in from OH on Sunday will cause a better/more
widespread round of SHRA/TSRA. The better shear thru the atmos
will help them move a little bit quicker. We have a high level
of confidence in a better-organized cluster of storms moving
from W-E across Central PA in the aftn and evening hours. While
this is mainly outside of the 18Z end time of this package,
we'll likely add more mentions of TSRA with later packages.
Outlook...
Mon...Cold front nears, but may stall out/not pass through
completely. Widespread SHRA/TSRA, mainly southeast.
Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR. Isold PM TSRA poss, mainly south.
Thurs...Sct/Nmrs SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo/RXR
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo/RXR
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/RXR
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...Dangelo/RXR
Office: PHI
FXUS61 KPHI 130734
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
334 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An extended period of very warm, humid, and unsettled weather
conditions is expected for the upcoming week. A cold front
approaches the region today into Monday before slowly crossing
through later Monday into Tuesday. Thereafter, the front stalls
near/over the region before lifting back north as a warm front
later Wednesday into Thursday. Another cold front approaches
towards the end of week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today looks mostly like a repeat of yesterday as easterly flow
continues to dominate. This means more low clouds and patchy fog
to start, with sun breaking through towards midday/early
afternoon. Also it means that convection will be mostly confined
to well inland/higher terrain locales, with I-95 and points
southeast seeing just slight chance of a shower or storm. Highs
well into the 80s with heat indices in the 90s.
Tonight, things start to change as a front approaches. Better
chance that some weakening convection from the west reaches our
western lower elevation zones than the last few days during the
evening, then remnant showers may cross the entire area
overnight. Otherwise, looks like another round of low
clouds/patchy fog by late at night. Lows mostly near or above
70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will approach our region from the west Monday
while slowing down and undergoing frontolysis. Very slowly, this
front makes its way through the region Monday into Tuesday
before eventually stalling over/near the region for the
remainder of the term. Diffluence will be present aloft on
Monday as this front approaches, which will help support
widespread convection. Upper ridging will begin to build in from
the south into Tuesday, which should work to suppress coverage
of convection somewhat despite the presence of the decaying
frontal boundary.
Some spotty showers leftover from tonight could linger for
areas during the Monday morning time frame, depending on the
timing of frontal movement. The main show will be a round of
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected for the region
Monday afternoon into the nighttime period, as the front only
sags ever so sightly to the southeast with time. PoPs for the
inland areas are around 50-80%, and lower toward the coast where
instability and forcing will be more limited.
As for the convective environment details, we will have a
tropical setup with tall, skinny CAPE profiles and low shear.
Low to mid level wind fields will be quite light, only around
10-15 kts at most, so deep layer shear will be low. This will
support a disorganized, pulsy nature to convection, which will
be influenced by meso to microscale factors such as terrain and
outflow boundaries. With PWats on the order of 2.0-2.5" across
the entire area and SBCAPE near 1500-2500 J/kg, we should see
scattered tropical downpours with frequent lightning developing
into the afternoon and evening. Given the weak flow, low shear,
and low DCAPE, severe thunderstorms are unlikely. However, an
isolated damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out due to water
loaded downdrafts and weakened tree root systems.
WPC has increased the Excessive Rainfall Outlook to a Slight
Risk for much of southeast PA, Philly metro and adjacent NJ
areas, and portions of Delmarva. This will be the area with the
greatest risk for heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding,
especially considering recent localized heavy rainfall events. A
Flood Watch will need to be considered in a future update, but
details on timing, convective evolution, and rainfall amounts
remain a little unclear at the moment.
PoPs have increased slightly across the board for Tuesday to
around 40-60%. This is primarily due to a slightly slower
progression of the decaying frontal boundary, however as
previously mentioned, the ridge building in from the south
should work to suppress coverage of convection compared to
Monday. In any case, scattered showers and storms are probable
Tuesday afternoon and evening again, especially along and south
of where ever the frontal boundary ends up. PWats south of the
front will still be near 2", so locally heavy downpours will
remain possible. As with Monday, the severe thunderstorm threat
will be low.
Seasonable temperatures with humid conditions can be expected
through this period. High temperatures will be mainly in the mid
to upper 80s, with muggy nighttime low temperatures in the low
to mid 70s. Fog formation is possible for areas during the late
nighttime and early morning periods, but this will be dependent
on precipitation occurrence and mixing.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The stationary frontal boundary looks to plague the region
before an approaching low pressure systems lifts it through as a
weak warm front Wednesday/Thursday. Thereafter, another cold
front approaches, looking to pass through sometime near/during
the weekend (e.g, late Friday/early Saturday). The upper ridge
will retreat southward some with time from the middle to end of
the week, yielding a west/northwest flow aloft and southwesterly
return flow ahead of the late week cold front.
Unfortunately, this synoptic pattern supports a continuation of
the showery and stormy summertime pattern. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday/Thursday/Friday, mainly during the
afternoon and evening time frames with diurnal heating in place.
End of the week/weekend cold front will probably end up being a
focus for severe thunderstorm potential, but as of now, there
are no particular days that stand out among the others regard
severe or flash flood potential. PWats will remain high, so
heavy downpours will remain possible through the entire week.
The severe thunderstorm potentially will probably be more
mesoscale drive than synoptic, typical of July.
Another hazard to monitor will be the building heat and
humidity toward the middle and end of the week with the
southwesterly return flow. This won't be a pattern for extreme
temperatures, however highs in the low 90s with high humidity
(dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) will result in heat indices
near 100 degrees Wednesday through Friday. The hottest day
currently appears to be Thursday, but this is subject to change
based on how the pattern and convection evolve.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Thru 12Z...Low clouds developing generally with most areas
seeing cigs drop to IFR or lower. The set up looks more
favorable for low clouds than fog, except near the coast,
including KACY, where both the lowest ceilings and lowest
visibilities are likely to occur. By 09Z, expect most locations
to have IFR conditions. Winds remain light (5 kt or less),
generally favoring the southeasterly direction, but could be
variable at times. High confidence in overall pattern, low
confidence in timing/placement of development of fog and
visibility restrictions.
Today...Once low clouds and fog dissipate, will see a return to
VFR conditions. Storms will begin to approach the area from the
northwest by 00Z, but impacts mostly confined to KRDG/KABE.
Moderate confidence,
Tonight...VFR with a few t-storms near KRDG/KABE to start, then
cigs drop to IFR again most terminals. A few showers could make
their way across the rest of the terminals after 6Z. Low
confidence.
Outlook...
Monday through Thursday...Overall, prevailing VFR conditions.
However, afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA may result in brief
periods of sub-VFR conditions daily. Sub-VFR conditions are also
possible overnights/early mornings due to low clouds and fog,
but uncertainty remains on this potential, so confidence is low.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through tonight.
Outlook...
Monday through Thursday...No marine headlines expected. Winds
generally remain 15 kt or less with seas around 2-4 feet.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible daily, primarily in the
late afternoon and evening hours, with the greatest probability
of showers and storms being on Monday.
Rip Currents...
Today, winds will be out of the southeast at around 10 mph with
breaking waves around 1 to 2 feet. This combined with a lower
southeast swell and lower wave heights results in a LOW risk for
the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents
at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches.
Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers
and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low
tides.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM/Staarmann/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...Johnson/RCM
SHORT TERM...Staarmann/Wunderlin
LONG TERM...Staarmann/Wunderlin
AVIATION...Johnson/RCM/Staarmann/Wunderlin
MARINE...Johnson/RCM/Staarmann/Wunderlin
FXUS61 KPHI 130737
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
337 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An extended period of very warm, humid, and unsettled weather
conditions is expected for the upcoming week. A cold front
approaches the region today into Monday before slowly crossing
through later Monday into Tuesday. Thereafter, the front stalls
near/over the region before lifting back north as a warm front
later Wednesday into Thursday. Another cold front approaches
towards the end of week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today looks mostly like a repeat of yesterday as easterly flow
continues to dominate. This means more low clouds and patchy fog
to start, with sun breaking through towards midday/early
afternoon. Also it means that convection will be mostly confined
to well inland/higher terrain locales, with I-95 and points
southeast seeing just slight chance of a shower or storm. Highs
well into the 80s with heat indices in the 90s.
Tonight, things start to change as a front approaches. Better
chance that some weakening convection from the west reaches our
western lower elevation zones than the last few days during the
evening, then remnant showers may cross the entire area
overnight. Otherwise, looks like another round of low
clouds/patchy fog by late at night. Lows mostly near or above
70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will approach our region from the west Monday
while slowing down and undergoing frontolysis. Very slowly, this
front makes its way through the region Monday into Tuesday
before eventually stalling over/near the region for the
remainder of the term. Diffluence will be present aloft on
Monday as this front approaches, which will help support
widespread convection. Upper ridging will begin to build in from
the south into Tuesday, which should work to suppress coverage
of convection somewhat despite the presence of the decaying
frontal boundary.
Some spotty showers leftover from tonight could linger for
areas during the Monday morning time frame, depending on the
timing of frontal movement. The main show will be a round of
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected for the region
Monday afternoon into the nighttime period, as the front only
sags ever so sightly to the southeast with time. PoPs for the
inland areas are around 50-80%, and lower toward the coast where
instability and forcing will be more limited.
As for the convective environment details, we will have a
tropical setup with tall, skinny CAPE profiles and low shear.
Low to mid level wind fields will be quite light, only around
10-15 kts at most, so deep layer shear will be low. This will
support a disorganized, pulsy nature to convection, which will
be influenced by meso to microscale factors such as terrain and
outflow boundaries. With PWats on the order of 2.0-2.5" across
the entire area and SBCAPE near 1500-2500 J/kg, we should see
scattered tropical downpours with frequent lightning developing
into the afternoon and evening. Given the weak flow, low shear,
and low DCAPE, severe thunderstorms are unlikely. However, an
isolated damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out due to water
loaded downdrafts and weakened tree root systems.
WPC has increased the Excessive Rainfall Outlook to a Slight
Risk for much of southeast PA, Philly metro and adjacent NJ
areas, and portions of Delmarva. This will be the area with the
greatest risk for heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding,
especially considering recent localized heavy rainfall events. A
Flood Watch will need to be considered in a future update, but
details on timing, convective evolution, and rainfall amounts
remain a little unclear at the moment.
PoPs have increased slightly across the board for Tuesday to
around 40-60%. This is primarily due to a slightly slower
progression of the decaying frontal boundary, however as
previously mentioned, the ridge building in from the south
should work to suppress coverage of convection compared to
Monday. In any case, scattered showers and storms are probable
Tuesday afternoon and evening again, especially along and south
of where ever the frontal boundary ends up. PWats south of the
front will still be near 2", so locally heavy downpours will
remain possible. As with Monday, the severe thunderstorm threat
will be low.
Seasonable temperatures with humid conditions can be expected
through this period. High temperatures will be mainly in the mid
to upper 80s, with muggy nighttime low temperatures in the low
to mid 70s. Fog formation is possible for areas during the late
nighttime and early morning periods, but this will be dependent
on precipitation occurrence and mixing.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The stationary frontal boundary looks to plague the region
before an approaching low pressure systems lifts it through as a
weak warm front Wednesday/Thursday. Thereafter, another cold
front approaches, looking to pass through sometime near/during
the weekend (e.g, late Friday/early Saturday). The upper ridge
will retreat southward some with time from the middle to end of
the week, yielding a west/northwest flow aloft and southwesterly
return flow ahead of the late week cold front.
Unfortunately, this synoptic pattern supports a continuation of
the showery and stormy summertime pattern. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday/Thursday/Friday, mainly during the
afternoon and evening time frames with diurnal heating in place.
End of the week/weekend cold front will probably end up being a
focus for severe thunderstorm potential, but as of now, there
are no particular days that stand out among the others regard
severe or flash flood potential. PWats will remain high, so
heavy downpours will remain possible through the entire week.
The severe thunderstorm potentially will probably be more
mesoscale drive than synoptic, typical of July.
Another hazard to monitor will be the building heat and
humidity toward the middle and end of the week with the
southwesterly return flow. This won't be a pattern for extreme
temperatures, however highs in the low 90s with high humidity
(dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) will result in heat indices
near 100 degrees Wednesday through Friday. The hottest day
currently appears to be Thursday, but this is subject to change
based on how the pattern and convection evolve.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Thru 12Z...Low clouds developing generally with most areas
seeing cigs drop to IFR or lower. The set up looks more
favorable for low clouds than fog, except near the coast,
including KACY, where both the lowest ceilings and lowest
visibilities are likely to occur. By 09Z, expect most locations
to have IFR conditions. Winds remain light (5 kt or less),
generally favoring the southeasterly direction, but could be
variable at times. High confidence in overall pattern, low
confidence in timing/placement of development of fog and
visibility restrictions.
Today...Once low clouds and fog dissipate, will see a return to
VFR conditions. Storms will begin to approach the area from the
northwest by 00Z, but impacts mostly confined to KRDG/KABE.
Moderate confidence,
Tonight...VFR with a few t-storms near KRDG/KABE to start, then
cigs drop to IFR again most terminals. A few showers could make
their way across the rest of the terminals after 6Z. Low
confidence.
Outlook...
Monday through Thursday...Overall, prevailing VFR conditions.
However, afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA may result in brief
periods of sub-VFR conditions daily. Sub-VFR conditions are also
possible overnights/early mornings due to low clouds and fog,
but uncertainty remains on this potential, so confidence is low.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through tonight.
Outlook...
Monday through Thursday...No marine headlines expected. Winds
generally remain 15 kt or less with seas around 2-4 feet.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible daily, primarily in the
late afternoon and evening hours, with the greatest probability
of showers and storms being on Monday.
Rip Currents...
Today, winds will be out of the east at around 10 mph with
breaking waves around 1 to 2 feet. This combined with a 2 foot
southeast swell every 7 seconds results in a LOW risk for the
development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at
the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches.
Monday, winds will be out of the south at around 10 mph with
breaking waves around 1 to 2 feet. This combined with a 2 foot
southeast swell every 6 seconds results in a LOW risk for the
development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at
the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches.
Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers
and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low
tides.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM/Staarmann/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...Johnson/RCM
SHORT TERM...Staarmann/Wunderlin
LONG TERM...Staarmann/Wunderlin
AVIATION...Johnson/RCM/Staarmann/Wunderlin
MARINE...Johnson/RCM/Staarmann/Wunderlin
Office: PBZ
FXUS61 KPBZ 130730
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
330 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal passage on Sunday brings a bit higher risk for severe
storms and isolated flash flooding, with muted heat. Chance of rain
with a post-frontal trough on Monday and relatively dry conditions
on Tuesday. By midweek, heat, flooding and severe weather concerns
return to the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Slightly higher flash flooding threat Sunday; marginal severe
risk to the east of Pittsburgh.
- Temperatures continue to run above seasonal levels.
- Patchy fog development possible Sunday night in areas that see
rainfall during the day.
---------------------------------------------------------------
The upper ridge that previously sat along the eastern seaboard
pushes east over the northern Atlantic on Sunday in response to
longwave troughing setting up to the west over the Great Lakes.
This shift puts the local area under a region of more unsettled
southwest flow, with height falls providing slightly more
synoptic ascent/forcing than the last couple days which actually
saw weak height rises and associated subsidence beneath the east
coast ridge. This translates to higher confidence in scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity across the region today, with
the greatest chances coinciding with peak heating during
afternoon and evening hours. Unlike yesterday when most of the
thunderstorm activity occurred to our west over the lower Ohio
Valley, on Sunday the best environment for convection will be
across western PA and northern WV where the HREF suggests high
probabilities (~90% chance) of at least 1000 J/kg SBCAPE.
Convective-allowing models also suggest an area of roughly
600-800 J/kg DCAPE values across the same areas, which supports
a low-end threat for damaging wind gusts in thunderstorm
downbursts. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained its
Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe weather generally
east of I-79 for this reason.
Additionally, HREF probabilities for PWATs above 1.6" are high
(>70%), which coupled with slow storm motions (<20 kts deep
layer mean flow) will support a localized flood threat in slow-
moving heavy downpours, especially for urban and poor-drainage
areas. The Weather Prediction Center has maintained its Marginal
Risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall over most of the
area east of I-77, with a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) even
clipping eastern Indiana and Westmoreland counties where
upslope flow could help focus/anchor thunderstorms over the
ridges and lead to locally higher rainfall totals.
Convection will taper after sunset with the loss of daytime
heating, followed by a quieter (but still warm and muggy) Sunday
night period. Patchy fog will be possible in places that see
accumulating rainfall during the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Lesser storm/shower chances Monday afternoon, mainly along the
Appalachian ridges.
- Mostly dry and warm Tuesday.
- West Virginia could see some showers on Tuesday.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Tomorrow, a shortwave trough will move through the area with the
axis expected to be east of Pittsburgh by the time of peak heating.
The best chances for scattered showers/storms are along the ridges
as well as southwestern PA and parts of norther WV. There appears to
be a low probability for isolated severe or flooding threat. If the
trough has a slower timing, this could increase these threats in our
area. Temperatures remain in the mid to upper 80s (about 5F above
normal) with a very modest air mass change behind the Sunday front.
Rain chances decrease into Tuesday with the arrival of surface high
pressure. This will likely bring the region light winds with a
slight decline in dew points and mostly clear skies. This should
keep conditions pleasant despite general upper ridging and high
temperatures above normal. Areas in WV are now looking to have a
high probability of some rain due to a low level shortwave trough
over western Virginia.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Heat Wednesday and Thursday
- Rain chances increasing Thursday into the weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The area of high pressure will begin to gradually move eastward off
the Atlantic coast, allowing the return of warm and moist southwest
flow. This will likely result in Wednesday being the hottest day of
the work-week with overnight lows staying elevated Thursday morning.
Heat Risk tops out at "Major" levels with the most recent update.
There is still about four degrees of temperature uncertainty
Wednesday related to precipitation chances and cloud cover.
Depending on the speed of a trough passage and cloud cover trends,
temperature spread increases Thursday. Thursday has the potential to
be comparable to Wednesday's heat, although most ensembles have more
cloud coverage and the best chance of rain this week due to a
shortwave skirting south of the main surface front. Wednesday and
Thursday also have the highest proportional chances of severe
weather and flooding as indicated by machine learning, and CIPS
analogs.
Rain chances linger through Friday as the probability for the main
surface front passage increases, though at this point, there are
varying solutions in clustered guidance with some solutions
suggesting ridging in the upper Great Lakes which would maintain
near 588dm heights and warmth, but some show trough development
which might sweep downstream and return temperatures close to normal.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail at all area terminals to start the TAF
period. Aside from passing mid and high clouds, conditions
should remain quiet with only some patchy fog possible towards
sunrise, particularly in areas that saw accumulating rainfall
during the day Saturday.
A cold front brings higher precipitation chances to the area
Sunday afternoon. The best coverage likely occurs after 18z,
though some isolated morning showers could bring rain (and
possibly a few rumbles of thunder) to terminals earlier than
that. VFR will prevail outside of showers/storms, with brief
restrictions possible in any precipitation. Some storms could
become strong and will be capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and frequent lightning. Convective activity will again
generally follow the summertime diurnal cycle, tapering after
sunset with the loss of daytime heating and giving way to
quieter weather Sunday night.
Outlook...
Ensemble models favor high pressure that drastically limits
convective potential Monday/Tuesday (but localized morning fog
can't be ruled out). Precipitation and restrictions become more
likely on Wednesday and Thursday as southwest flow and moisture
increase.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lupo
NEAR TERM...Cermak/CL
SHORT TERM...CL/Lupo
LONG TERM...Milcarek/Lupo
AVIATION...Cermak/CL
