pa discuss
Office: CTP
FXUS61 KCTP 282353
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
653 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Lake effect snow showers will start to wane this evening, but
may not go away over the northern tier until close to sunrise.
* Brief periods of snow (Northern PA) and a wintry mix (Southern
PA) are expected late Saturday Night and Sunday with light
accumulations possible
* A more significant/widespread winter storm is possible on
Tuesday
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Immediate concern is the SQW conditions inside each little
cluster/cell of snow crossing the CWA very quickly from the WNW.
Some of the earlier bands were more linear, but the current
character of the precip is very much cellular. Looking off to
the west in OH and wrn PA, this should continue to be the case
at least into the evening. Some striation/consolidation into
bands is expected this evening and overnight.
The closed low over QUE and it's surrounding trough will be
sliding to the east tonight. The 1000-850 mean flow won't change
much at all overnight, though, so the exit of LES SNSH is
likely to be a little later than we'd like. They may last all
night across the nrn tier. Model soundings for BFD keep the
cloud depth at least 5kft with the middle to top of the cloud in
the DGZ until nearly sunrise. So, our current expiration time
on the headlines up north (06Z) may need to be adjusted. On the
other hand, though, the inversion is lowering and the dewpoints
aren't rising, so the SHSN may not be as intense as necessary to
warrant keeping the headlines going. So, for now, we'll keep
the exp time as is.
The wind and gusts do gradually diminish thru the night as high
pressure starts to move in from the SW. Temps may dip close to
20F in lots of places by morning. The bigger urban areas will be
more in the m20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The last vestiges of the lake effect clouds and any flurries
should end early in the morning Sat. The upslope low deck in
the west will start to diminish, but high and mid clouds close
up any breaks of sun in the afternoon. The sun in the
southeastern half of the CWA will last thru a good part of the
day. Lift ahead of the next batch of precip will not hold precip
until after dark Sat evening, and perhaps not until close to
midnight, in the NW. The low center is well to our N and the fast
SW flow will pull the precip across the region quickly. The
majority of models and the meso ensembles all make very little
precip for the SE third of the CWA on Sunday. What does manage
to hit the ground there would likely be a mix in the morning or
plain rain from late AM on as temps warm up thru the day. Light
snow will be the predominant precip type for the northern mtns.
The best QPF is in the NW, too. The first swipe at snow totals
there could be near 3 inches in our NW 5-6 counties, and near 2"
in the NE. But, that would be the worst of it as the air is very
dry with little moisture coming in from the Gulf. Very little
signal for freezing rain that lasts more than an hour, but it is
worth mentioning inside the broader collection of "wintry mix."
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather will continue into early next week as cold
air in the middle of the country sets up a strong baroclinic
zone over the eastern US. High pressure in the Plains should
keep cold air in place on the northern side of the precipitation
shield from a wave of low pressure progged to move out of the
Gulf. This system should move northeast around the base of the
aforementioned high pressure system, bringing increasing
moisture to the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday next week.
It remains too early pin down details of timing, intensity, and
precipitation type delineation, the first widespread plowable
snowfall of the season is possible.
System at this time looks to be somewhat progressive with the
lack of a strong area of high pressure to slow the advance of
the system which will be a limiting factor in eventual snowfall
totals across the area. Location of the low-pressure system
still also have impact on where a transition zone from freezing
precipitation to rainfall will be observed across the area and
intensity of precipitation. GEFS and ECENS probabilities of 6"+
continue to outline low-end probabilities, thus no thoughts of
any mentions outside of the HWO. Continue to monitor the
forecast in the days ahead, especially if you have plans to
travel.
High pressure will regain control of our weather in the wake of
the aforementioned system for the middle to end of next week.
Prevailing upper troughing brings high confidence in continued
below normal temperatures and a chilly start to December.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will continue across the northern tier
of Pennsylvania overnight, with bands shifting closer to BFD in
the near-term. Widespread long-duration restrictions are not
expected at this time based on NBM/HREF/GLAMP guidance;
however, cannot rule out brief instances of MVFR-to-IFR
conditions at BFD in snow showers. Restrictions for the first
half of the overnight will be more based on visibilities before
lower ceilings begin to push towards longer duration of MVFR
conditions after 04-06Z Saturday. Low ceilings will also be
possible based on a combination of GLAMP/HREF model guidance at
JST between 03Z and 09Z Saturday. Model guidance keeps low
ceilings in at BFD through ~15-18Z Saturday, with clearing
elsewhere allowing for gradual improvement towards VFR after 12Z
Saturday.
Northwest winds will continue to gust 25-30 knots area wide
throughout the near-term, with winds beginning to taper off
closer between 06Z across the northwest (BFD) and 10Z across the
northeast (IPT). Some model uncertainty with respect to timing
does exist; however, expect winds to taper off over a three to
four hour period across all terminals of central Pennsylvania.
Outlook...
Sun...Light rain/wintry mix developing from west to east;
restrictions possible. Precip may turn to rain across the south
during the day.
Mon...Mixed/wintry precip likely early on. MVFR likely. IFR
possible.
Tue...Snow possible, before a possible mix later in the day
across the south. Restrictions possible.
Wed...Trending drier, lingering snow across NW PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for
PAZ004>006.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for PAZ010-011-
037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Banghoff/NPB
AVIATION...NPB
Office: PHI
FXUS61 KPHI 282337
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
637 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will traverse the region this evening. High
pressure will briefly build in through Saturday night. A low
pressure system and associated cold front will approach the
region Sunday with the cold front passing through Sunday night.
Low pressure will develop over the southeastern CONUS before
tracking northeast towards our area Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Another cold front will track through the region Thursday night,
with high pressure building back in thereafter.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For tonight, low pressure to our north pulls farther away while
high pressure approaches as it advances eastward through the
Ohio Valley. This will result in a weakening pressure gradient
with time so while there will still be some wind gusts of 20 to
30 mph early this evening, the winds/gusts should be diminished
by the overnight with winds by this time generally around 10 mph
or so from the WNW. Lows tonight will be in the 20s with wind
chills in the teens to low 20s with skies generally becoming
mostly clear.
For Saturday, high pressure will build eastward setting up pretty
much right over our area by late day. As a result, while
temperatures will be very similar to today (highs mainly in the low
40s) the winds will be much less at around 5-10 mph so the wind
chill will not be as significant of a factor compared to today.
Otherwise expect a mainly sunny and dry day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Subtle ridging aloft Saturday night will quickly give way to
mid- level height falls as a trough axis shifts eastward through
the Great Lakes on Sunday. The trough axis will pass near or
just north of the area Sunday night. Subtle height rises will
occur through Monday as the trough departs. At the surface, high
pressure will quickly depart to the east by Sunday morning as
the next storm system approaches from the west. A surface low
will track to our north through the day Sunday and into Sunday
evening with a trailing cold front passing through Sunday night.
Saturday night may start out mostly clear, but clouds should
fill in from west to east through the night. With the cold
airmass already in place, and light winds to start the night, it
should be fairly chilly, with lows in the mid-upper 20s across
most of the area. With southeasterly wind beginning to increase,
temperatures may bottom out relatively early in the night
before beginning to increase slightly.
Widespread but mostly light precipitation will overspread the
area on Sunday. Along and especially northwest of I-95,
precipitation may start as a rain and snow mix, with all snow
for the Poconos. As temperatures warm through the day,
precipitation should transition to all rain. Some light snow
accumulation will be possible for the Poconos. Regarding
rainfall, amounts will generally be around 0.25", with isolated
areas potentially seeing slightly more or less. Highs on Sunday
look to be in the mid 30s for the Poconos, the mid-upper 40s for
the remainder of our eastern PA counties and much of NJ, and
the low-mid 50s across the Delmarva and the Coastal Plain.
Rain will come to an end across the area Sunday evening from
west to east with the passage of the cold front. Lows Sunday
night will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. Monday will be dry
but chilly, with highs generally in the low 40s. For the
Poconos, temperatures may remain near to slightly above
freezing. Breezy northwesterly wind can be expected behind the
front Sunday night into Monday, with gusts to around 30 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday night currently appears mostly dry with high pressure
over the area beginning to retreat northeastward. Low
temperatures should be in the 20s for most. Low pressure will be
developing over the southeastern US, and will begin to approach
the area by daybreak Tuesday. It currently appears that the low
will make its closest approach to the area Tuesday afternoon,
and begin departing to the northeast by Tuesday night.
Widespread precipitation is expected with this system. Right
now, have chance PoPs moving into portions of the Delmarva and
eastern PA during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. PoPs are
highest Tuesday afternoon and evening, in the 70-80% realm
areawide. Precipitation chances should wind down fairly quickly
overnight Tuesday night, with the entire region precipitation-
free by Wednesday morning.
Regarding the potential for accumulating snowfall: models are
in good agreement this afternoon regarding the track of the low
and its associated features. With that said, even subtle shifts
could have big impacts given it currently appears likely that
the rain to snow line will fall somewhere in our forecast area,
with accumulating snowfall increasingly likely for some. In
looking at the overall pattern, high pressure looks to retreat
northeastward with the approach of the low. This will tend to
favor onshore flow and marine influence affecting temperature
profiles for many. Initially, snow or a rain and snow mix could
be possible as far south as the I-95 corridor, with all snow
favored northwest of the fall line, and all rain favored to the
southeast of I-95. Through the day Tuesday, the rain snow line
will likely shift northwest. At the peak of precipitation
coverage and intensity, all snow is possible for the Poconos and
into adjacent portions of far northwestern NJ, a rain snow mix
will be favored northwest of the fall line, and all rain
elsewhere. It is too soon to get overly specific with amounts,
but DESI probabilistic guidance suggests around a 50% of snow
accumulation exceeding 1" for the Lehigh Valley and points
northwest, and around 70% for the Poconos. A cold, soaking
rainfall is likely elsewhere. High temperatures could vary
widely on Monday, with temperatures mostly in the 30s for the
Lehigh Valley and points north and west, the low 40s for most of
NJ and the Delmarva, but potentially as high as the low 50s for
the Coastal Plain where the marine influence is most felt.
After the low departs Tuesday night, dry conditions are
expected through Friday. A cold front looks to bring a
reinforcing shot of cold air Thursday night into Friday, but for
now it looks like precipitation chances will be quite slim.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...VFR/SKC expected with a few low clouds at times.
Gusty W-NW winds early around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25
kt, diminish to around 5-10 kt overnight. High confidence.
Saturday...VFR/SKC with a few high clouds late in the day. W-NW
winds around 10 kt. High confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday night...Primarily VFR. Sub-MVFR ceilings can't be
ruled out in low clouds moving in by daybreak Sunday.
Sunday through Sunday night...Sub-VFR conditions are expected
in periods of rain and low clouds. Rain will clear the area
Sunday evening, but low clouds could linger through most of the
night.
Monday through Monday night...Primarily VFR. Slight chance
(20%) of sub-VFR conditions in rain or snow late Monday night.
Tuesday through Tuesday night...Sub-VFR conditions are expected
in periods of rain and snow for the northwestern terminals, and
in rain elsewhere. Conditions should improve by late Tuesday
night.
Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather.
&&
.MARINE...
The Gale Warning continues through this evening and ends at 2 AM for
all waters. Generally expect W-NW wind gusts up to around 35 kt along
with rough seas.
Following the end of the gales overnight, expect Small Craft
Advisory level winds to continue until around dawn, where a SCA
will be needed. For the rest of Saturday the conditions should
be sub-SCA criteria.
Outlook...
Saturday night...No marine headlines anticipated. South wind
will increase to 15-20 kt late. Seas 1-3 feet.
Sunday through Monday...SCA conditions are expected beginning
Sunday with south winds increasing to 20-25 kt, with gusts near
30 kt. Winds will shift to northwest Sunday night, but remain
elevated. Winds should diminish by Monday afternoon. Seas 4-6
feet.
Monday night...No marine headlines anticipated with wind below
25 kt and seas below 5 feet.
Tuesday through Wednesday...SCA conditions likely with east
winds increasing to near 25 kt and then becoming northwest
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds look to diminish Wednesday
afternoon. Seas 5-7 feet, also diminishing Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EST Saturday for ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Cooper
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/OHara
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Cooper/DeSilva/Fitzsimmons
MARINE...Cooper/Fitzsimmons
Office: PBZ
FXUS61 KPBZ 290001
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
701 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered snow showers are expected to diminish in intensity and
coverage tonight across northwest Pennsylvania, with additional
accumulations being light. Cold temperatures and melting snow
could create icy pockets on roadways overnight that drivers may
need to exhibit caution. Snow will transition to rain with the
next wintry system Sunday, with generally light accumulations
possible in northwest Pennsylvania. More widespread snow may
occur with another system Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Snow showers will wane with only limited additional
accumulations
- Potential for icy patches on roadways tonight as some roads
see snow melt then re-freeze
---------------------------------------------------------------
Though scattered showers continue across portions of northwest
PA, latest radar imagery in conjunction with the 00z sounding
show the influence of increasing subsidence from building high
pressure. Coverage has and will continue to thin overnight while
snowfall rates diminish. Due to these trends and available model
guidance suggesting any additional accumulations being fairly
light, the Lake Effect Warning and Winter Weather Advisory
headlines have been allowed to expire.
The impacts from accumulating snowfall may be ending, but there
remains some concerns for travelers tonight. There have been
indications that some area roadways are developing icy patches
as a result of enough snowfall that is melting but re-freezing
as temperature falls. Due to the potential for icy patches,
especially on elevated roads and overpasses, a Special Weather
Statement was issued through midnight from far eastern OH
through western PA and portions of northern WV. Please exercise
caution while driving on roads that appears wet or have puddles
and may be untreated.
Residual cold advection help lower area temperature near the 20s
to upper teens despite partly to mostly cloudy skies. Waning
surface gradients (and the loss of diurnal mixing) will help
lower wind speeds and ensure most locations (save for the colder
eastern Tucker climate) see wind chills only in the teens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Snow returns Saturday night.
- Transition to rain Sunday morning/afternoon.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Heading into the day on Saturday, mainly scattered cloud cover
through the morning is expected to increase through the day as the
next low pressure system develops over the Upper MS Valley and
shifts east across the area. Precipitation chances will
increase Saturday night with increased moisture in place and sfc
low pressure associated with a digging upper trough crosses
into the Ohio Valley Saturday evening and overnight At this
time, the highest chances look to be overnight into Sunday
morning, ahead of the associated cold front progged to cross
during the afternoon.
Thermal profiles will initially support all snow at onset before
a transition to rain through the morning. Light snow will likely
resume behind the cold front Sunday evening along the I-80
corridor before winding down overnight. Probabilities for an
inch or two of snow are highest north and west of PGH as those
areas should see enhanced lift under the left exit region of the
upper jet. Probabilities for Advisory level snow remain less
than 40% at this time for those same mentioned areas.
Strong warm advection will push highs back into the 40s early
afternoon, but will then drop over the course of the afternoon
behind the front. Overnight lows will be in the 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Largely dry Monday
- Snow and rain return Tuesday
- Below normal temperatures
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The active pattern continues next week with yet another chance
for snow as a shortwave crosses the Great Lakes and a Southeast
US surface low tracks up the coast. Precipitation chances return
later Monday night and Tuesday, exiting by Tuesday night. Some
uncertainty in precipitation type continues as a result of
differing warm advection strength. Ensembles have generally
favored a colder solution, but will maintain a mention of rain
and snow given uncertainty and propensity for under-forecasting
warm advection.
Dry weather should return Wednesday with weak ridging and
building sfc high pressure, before minor snow chances return
Thursday with the next frontal system.
Temperatures will be below average through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Broad cyclonic flow around a mid-level closed low centered just
north of Maine has continued to provide favorable northwest flow
with cold air over the lakes for lake effect snow showers. These
have been more cellular in nature this evening bringing
temporary restrictions to IFR vis within the heavier showers.
Conditions outside of snow showers have been VFR with a mid-
level BKN to OVC cloud deck. Headed into tonight, expect that
increasing subsidence from approaching high pressure to our
southwest will cut off the depth of the moisture and dissipate
snow showers south of I-80. VFR conditions will prevail
overnight at all sites, save FKL/DUJ, with the mid-level cloud
deck slowly breaking up and wind diminishing to around 5-10
knots overnight.
For FKL/DUJ, expect that BKN to OVC ceilings will hover right
around 3kft with some lake effect snow showers able to hang on
through midnight or so and bringing temporary MVFR/IFR
restrictions. Improvement back to low-end VFR is favored after
that, but northwest flow will still keep the highest cloud
coverage at those two sites.
VFR continues for most of Saturday as wind backs from the west
to ultimately southeast throughout the day but generally remains
light around 5 knots. Increasing cloud coverage will overspread
from the west in the afternoon ahead of approaching low
pressure.
Outlook...
The next low pressure system arrives early Saturday night,
creating widespread precipitation chances with increasing
probability for on MVFR to IFR restrictions Saturday night
through Sunday morning. Thermal profiles suggest initial
precipitation may fall as snow and have some potential for
accumulation (favoring ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ) before warm advection
aides in a changeover to rain.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...MLB
