ny discuss
Office: ALY
FXUS61 KALY 090700
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
300 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A brief break in precipitation is expected today as weak surface
high pressure builds across the region. A frontal boundary to our
south will lift back north across the area Thursday, with a renewed
round of showers and storms expected. This active pattern will
persist for most into the weekend and early next week with
temperatures remaining warm with humid conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
- A dry day for most today before shower and storm chances return
Thursday and Friday.
- There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday with the
primary risks being damaging wind gusts and torrential rainfall.
Discussion:
06z surface analysis showed a cold front draped across southern New
England into central Pennsylvania and the Ohio River Valley. Showers
and storms were ongoing in the vicinity of the boundary, with
some activity even noted from the Catskills into the Capital
Distrcit and western Mass with some weak forcing from a passing
shortwave interacting with the front.
A weak area of high pressure was located just to the west across
southern Ontario, and should be the driving force for our weather
today. While the threat of an isolated rain shower will exist mainly
in high terrain areas and in northwest CT closer to the near
stationary frontal boundary, expect a dry day for most with
continued partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will climb
into the upper 70s (terrain) to mid 80s (valleys), while lows
tonight only fall into 60s to near 70.
Heading into late tonight and Thursday, the aforementioned frontal
boundary will lift north as a warm front into the region, and will
interact with an approaching shortwave across Ontario/Quebec and a
renewed surge of low-level WAA and moisture with southwesterly flow.
This will help spark scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and early evening. Some storms could become
severe as the approach of the shortwave will increase bulk shear,
along with increased surface instability with daytime heating and
increasing dewpoints. SPC maintains a broad Level 1 (marginal) risk
of severe weather for the area, while WPC maintains a broad
Level 1 (marginal) risk for excessive rainfall. Similar
temperatures are expected with PM highs in the 70s/80s and lows
in the 60s/near 70.
Friday will be similar to today as it will be dry for most with weak
surface high pressure building in. However, the frontal boundary is
progged to be across our southern CWA, which will keep the threat of
a diurnally driven shower/storm here. Once again, temperatures will
remain fairly consistent with highs in the 70s/80s and lows in the
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:
- Daily chances of showers/storms (highest Sunday) persist with
temperatures near to above mid July normals.
Discussion:
As mentioned in the previous AFD, typical summer weather is
expected through much of the long term period. Daily chances of
showers/storms, while on the low end (slight chance/chance) are
expected each day as zonal flow aloft (with numerous embedded
weak shortwaves) traverse the region. A better chance of
showers/storms looks to arrive Sunday/Monday as a stronger
shortwave embedded in the flow moves across the Great Lakes into
the Northeast. Although it's too early to pinpoint exactly
where and when, some threat for heavy downpours and/or strong
storms are likely to occur at some point during the extended
period.
Daytime temps will likely be in the mid to upper 80s each day in
valley areas with lows in the 60s. It should stay fairly humid
through the period with dewpoints in the 60s outside of higher
terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z/Thu...A frontal boundary has become stationary over
southern NY into southern New England near the I-84 corridor this
morning. Weak disturbances continues to move along the boundary, as
high pressure continues to try to build in from eastern Great Lakes
Region. Mid and high clouds remain over the TAFs sites with some
lower stratus developing at KGFL. We are expecting some MVFR/low
VFR stratus to form at all the TAF sites between 08Z-12Z/WED. The
stratus will remain in place until 15Z-18Z/WED. Some mid and high
clouds will linger until another weak disturbance will bring some
thickening of the clouds, as well as some scattered showers or
isolated thunderstorms late in the afternoon into the evening
period. We included PROB30 groups at KPSF/KPOU for
showers/thunderstorms late in the TAF cycle with MVFR conditions.
The winds will be light from the north/northwest at 5 KT or less
this morning and then will vary from the east/southeast to the
north/northwest at 7 KT or less in the late morning through the
afternoon before becoming light and variable a 4 KT or less tonight.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday to Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Frugis/Speck
AVIATION...Wasula
Office: OKX
FXUS61 KOKX 090701
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
301 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary near the region
through Thursday. The front should then push south of the area
Friday into Saturday. A weak frontal system may pass to the north
Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Most shower activity early this morning has remained to our
north with dry conditions to start the day. A more well defined
shortwave trough attempts to dig down across the Great Lakes
this afternoon and evening. There may be some subtle pieces of
energy ahead of the main trough this afternoon and early
evening. Sea breeze convergence along with the stalled front
will be the main trigger for any afternoon convection. Coverage
of showers/storms looks less compared to Tuesday afternoon and
evening. The convective focus looks most likely south of the
area across the Middle Atlantic where an MCV will pass through
late in the day and early evening. This is also where SPC has
focused the higher severe thunderstorm risk (slight). PWATs may
end up a bit lower than recent days ranging from 1.75-2.00
inches, but high enough that any shower/storm that develops will
have potential to produce locally heavy downpours. WPC has
maintained a marginal risk for excessive rainfall supporting a
continued localized flash flood threat.
Slight modification to the air mass is anticipated with guidance
continuing to signal 850 temps about 1-2C cooler than on Tuesday.
Highs today will reach the upper 80s for much of the area with some
of the usual warmer locations in NE NJ and NYC metro around 90
degrees. Dew points still look to be in the lower 70s this morning
with potential of them mixing out slightly in the afternoon,
particularly across NE NJ and NYC metro. The SW flow away from
the sea breeze is weak, but there is enough dry air to mix down
to allow dew points to fall into the upper 60s. Max heat indices
overall should peak in the lower 90s with a few spots briefly
hitting 95, mainly in urban NE NJ and parts of the NYC metro.
This looks mostly isolated and not widespread enough to warrant
the issuance of a heat advisory.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase tonight as the upper
trough settles over the northeast. The slight amplification in the
flow should help pull up another wave of low pressure along the
stalled front over the area. There is also some jet stream
support as the region may lie within the right entrance region
of a 90-100 kt 250 mb jet streak over northern New England.
Showers should increase in coverage late tonight with some
embedded thunderstorms possible. The activity will have some
movement, limited flooding potential, but still cannot rule out
some minor flooding.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Showers may persist early Thursday morning, but the associated
weak wave should push east shortly after day break. The upper
trough axis will swing across New England the rest of Thursday.
The frontal boundary that has been nearly stationary will
continue to remain nearby. Some uncertainty in convective
coverage in the afternoon and evening, but the threat persists
for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall. WPC
has maintained the marginal risk for excessive rainfall on
Thursday. SPC has much of the area in a marginal risk for a
severe thunderstorm as well, with the main threat damaging wind
gusts.
The upper trough pushes offshore Thursday night. Heights should
begin rising into Friday with the stalled front
weakening/washing out. The flow aloft is relatively flat, but
subtle energy may be enough to develop scattered
showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, mainly away
from the coast.
High temperatures on Thursday are expected to be a bit cooler
than recent days with readings in the upper 70s/lower 80s east
and lower to middle 80s elsewhere. It should be a bit warmer on
Friday with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes made to the forecast Saturday through next
Tuesday.
Most guidance shows a weak ridge building Saturday. Global
guidance still varies on solutions Sunday into Monday, but are
starting to point to another frontal system at some point during
this time frame.
Generally southerly flow is expected for most of the long-term
period. This should keep dewpoints and atmospheric moisture high and
continue chances for daily showers and thunderstorms through
Monday. Mainly slight chance POPs east with low-end chance POPs
west where daily instability from daytime heating could be
stronger.
Temperatures through the long-term period will generally be close to
just above climatological norms. Highs each day will be in the
mid/upper 80s to around 90 in the warmest spots. Lows each
night will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s. However, the difference
between NBM's 25th and 75th percentiles for max temperatures is
about 15 degrees Saturday through Monday, further highlighting
the uncertainty and disagreement among the guidance in the long-
term period.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A stationary frontal boundary remains within the region through
the TAF period.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. However,
occasional MVFR conditions are possible with showers and
thunderstorms at times during the TAF period.
Much uncertainty with the exact timing of showers and thunderstorms.
Overall, these look more probable for the last half of the TAF
period, around and after 00Z Thursday.
Winds will be generally S-SW near 5-10 kt for much of the TAF
period. Some gusts to near 20 kt will be possible at times. Some
terminals will be variable with their wind direction with lighter
wind speeds at 5 kts or less particularly for the late night into
morning hours.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely to refine the timing of showers and thunderstorms
which could vary by a few hours compared to TAF.
Amendments possible to include wind gusts to near 20 kt if they
become more frequent.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Late tonight: Potential MVFR with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms. IFR possible at times. Otherwise, mainly VFR
outside of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday: Potential MVFR with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms. IFR possible at times. Otherwise, mainly VFR
outside of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday: MVFR or lower possible at times with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms, mainly near and northwest of NYC terminals.
Otherwise, mainly VFR outside of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday: MVFR or lower possible at times with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms, mainly northwest of NYC terminals. Otherwise,
mainly VFR outside of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday: MVFR or lower possible at times with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms, mainly near and northwest of NYC terminals.
Otherwise, mainly VFR outside of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient into the upcoming weekend will bring
winds and seas below SCA levels.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Any shower or thunderstorm today into Thursday has the potential
to produce locally heavy downpours. WPC has maintained a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall with a continued localized
flash flooding threat.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk is forecast at all ocean beaches
into this evening due to to incoming 3-4 ft/7-8s swell. The
moderate risk continues for all but the NYC beaches for on
Thursday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BR/DS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Office: BUF
FXUS61 KBUF 090616
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
216 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A bubble of high pressure over the region will bring mainly dry
weather through tonight, although there is a low risk for a
shower or thunderstorm with a frontal boundary just off to our
south. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday
as the frontal boundary lifts north across the region. Drier
weather returns for Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Stationary boundary remain just off to our southeast early this
morning as a bubble of high pressure resides over the region.
Satellite imagery showing an expanding area of stratus and fog (some
dense) across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. The stratus and fog
will remain in place through mid morning, before mid and high
level clouds increase as the boundary to our south starts to
lift northward. For the most part, today looks dry with the
bubble of high pressure in place, but as the boundary moves
closer we could see some isolated convection develop this
afternoon as instability increases. Best chances across the
Southern Tier and along any lake breeze circulations.
Additional low chances for showers exist tonight as the boundary
moves closer and a weak upper wave passes close to the region. May
be enough elevated instability to support a non-zero chance for
thunderstorms with any showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A deep southerly flow will persist along the east coast late in the
week. A mid-level trough across northern Ontario Thursday will move
towards northern New England before lifting back north into Quebec
Friday. A broad area of lower pressure will be across the Great
Lakes region into the Ohio Valley. Showers are possible in the
morning, however better coverage is expected Thursday afternoon.
Daytime heating with modest deep layer moisture will allow for
showers and a few thunderstorms through the early evening. A belt of
25-30kt westerly flow will round the trough across the region. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from the Genesee
Valley and east. Showers and any storms will weaken and or move east
of the forecast area Thursday night. Weak low-level flow flow may
result in fog formation, especially if clouds clear out early.
There will be little change in MSLP on Friday with weak winds across
the forecast area. Mid-level ridging will build into the region
Friday. There remains modest moisture especially for areas to the
south, so while most of the forecast area will be dry, can't rule
out widely scattered showers during peak heating, mainly near the
Pennsylvania State Line. Mostly dry weather will persist through
Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A low amplitude shortwave ridge will move across the eastern Great
Lakes region Saturday. Increasing temperatures and moisture may
result in very warm and humid conditions across the region. Daytime
highs could reach the upper 80s to low 90s. The ridge will move east
Sunday while an approaching trough flattens across the central Great
Lakes region. An area of low pressure and associated cold front may
support showers and thunderstorms across the region Sunday. Zonal
flow and surface high pressure will start the work week with low
chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Above normal temperatures are anticipated this weekend into next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Plenty of low level moisture will remain in place this morning with
low stratus and fog bringing IFR conditions. Highest confidence in
low conditions at KART and KJHW.
Once the stratus and fog mixes out, VFR weather expected today.
Increase in higher level clouds through the day with generally
light winds. Isolated risk for showers or thunderstorms this
afternoon, favoring inland of Lake Erie (KJHW) will become more
in numbers late this afternoon and this evening including KIAG
and KBUF as a prefrontal trough ahead of a cold front draws near
far WNY.
Outlook...
Tonight into Thursday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with
MVFR restrictions possible.
Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday and Sunday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with
MVFR restrictions possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light winds and sub-advisory conditions over Lakes Erie
and Ontario through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected to pass through the region tonight into
Thursday morning that could lead to gusty winds and choppy
conditions.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...Brothers/TMA
Office: BGM
FXUS61 KBGM 090954
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
554 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Times of clouds and sun today and remaining humid with just a
slight chance of a shower or thunderstorms in the afternoon and
at night. Showers and storms become more widespread Thursday,
especially in the afternoon. Quite warm and humid Friday through
the weekend with the next chance of widespread showers and
storms arriving later in the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
305 AM Update...
Areas of low clouds and fog will be around to start early this
morning, and some of the fog will be locally dense in the
valleys. This is expected to clear by 12-14Z. Surface high
pressure over the area will slide off to the east this afternoon
and an upper level trough and embedded shortwave will gradually
move in from the west. A frontal boundary will also be fairly
stationary just south and east of the CWA over northern/central
NJ and southeast PA. As a result, a mix of sun and clouds is
expected and it will be humid with dew points in the mid and
upper 60s. There can be an isolated pop up shower or
thunderstorm in the afternoon, but model soundings look pretty
dry in the low and mid levels, and PoPs are less than 25%. Highs
today will be primarily in the low and mid 80s, while the
Wyoming and Delaware River Valleys in NE PA remain quite warm in
the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
The upper trough will continue to slowly press eastward tonight
but much of the area is expected to be largely dry. There is a
wave of low pressure that looks to move northeastward from the
mid-Atlantic to NJ along the stalled boundary with a plume of
moisture-rich air, and this can skirt the Poconos with spotty
showers tonight, mainly during the evening. Lows tonight will
mainly be in the lower to mid 60s.
The next frontal boundary will start to approach from the west
Thursday. Ahead of the front, a strong Bermuda high will
continue to spread plenty of moisture-rich air north over the
mid- Atlantic region and southern New England. While the bulk of
this deep moisture stays to our south and east, warm and humid
conditions ahead of the front and the upper trough still
overhead will lead to instability and the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday, primarily during
the afternoon. Some of the storms Thursday could be strong and
contain gusty to locally damaging winds with 1000-2000 J/kg of
CAPE (with higher values on the NAM), 25-30 knots of shear and
steep low-level lapse rates in place, but mid-level lapse rates
look marginal at this time around 5-6 degrees C/km. The SPC does
have the entire CWA outlooked with a marginal risk for severe
storms at this time. Highs Thursday again will be in the low to
mid 80s with some valley locations reaching the upper 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
200 AM Forecast...
Lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the
late evening hours Thursday night. Instability decreases with the
lost of daytime heating, limiting the potential for any strong
storms lingering into the overnight hours. The trough that will
support the showers/storms lifts north late overnight, allowing
conditions to dry out as a ridge of high pressure begins to
build into the region.
A ridge continues to build into the region Friday. Weak waves will
try to kick off some afternoon showers and non-severe thunderstorms.
Drier air in place may be tough to overcome though, especially over
CNY. While chances are low, the best shower/storm chances will be
over NEPA and the Catskills where there will be slightly more
moisture available. Any showers/storms that develop come to an end
by Friday night.
Temperatures both nights will be in the 60s. Temperatures will climb
into the 80s on Friday. Dew points in the mid to to low 70s will
result in muggy conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 AM Forecast...
The weekend will start out mostly dry but a warm front will move
through on Saturday, which could support showers and thunderstorms
late in the day. Conditions then dry out overnight before shower
chances increase and become a bit more widespread Sunday as a cold
front approaches and eventually sweeps through the region. There is
uncertainty on the timing of the front as the GFS is quick to move
it through while the ECMWF is much slower with it. Due to this
uncertainty, shower chances will carry over into Monday given the
slower solutions, but then high pressure builds into the region
following the frontal passage. Drier conditions are expected by
Monday night and last through at least Tuesday. Spotty showers may
be possible Tuesday but with dry air in place, it may be a challenge
for anything to develop.
It will be a warm and muggy weekend after the warm front passes
through. Highs will be 80s and low 90s with dewpoints in the 60s and
low 70s. The cold front will be weak and brings little relief as
temperatures will remain in the 80s to start next week. Saturday
night will be the warmest night of this period with lows only in the
mid 60s to low 70s but then 60s are expected for the rest of the
nights into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Areas of low clouds and fog, primarily near ITH and ELM, are
expected to diminish by 14Z. VFR conditions are then expected
through much of the rest of the TAF period. There is a slight
chance of a pop up afternoon shower or thunderstorm, but
confidence is too low to include at any of the terminals. Spotty
showers and some lower ceilings may also skirt AVP tonight, but
the bulk of the shower activity is expected to pass by to the
south and east.
Model soundings do support the development of some shallow fog
later tonight and early tomorrow morning, especially around ITH
and ELM. Winds will be light throughout the forecast period.
Outlook...
Thursday...Restrictions possible with some showers and
thunderstorms around.
Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday into Sunday...Scattered showers/storms possible and
associated restrictions.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...DK
