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Office: ALY
FXUS61 KALY 090700
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
300 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief break in precipitation is expected today as weak surface
high pressure builds across the region. A frontal boundary to our
south will lift back north across the area Thursday, with a renewed
round of showers and storms expected. This active pattern will
persist for most into the weekend and early next week with
temperatures remaining warm with humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- A dry day for most today before shower and storm chances return
  Thursday and Friday.

- There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday with the
  primary risks being damaging wind gusts and torrential rainfall.

Discussion:

06z surface analysis showed a cold front draped across southern New
England into central Pennsylvania and the Ohio River Valley. Showers
and storms were ongoing in the vicinity of the boundary, with
some activity even noted from the Catskills into the Capital
Distrcit and western Mass with some weak forcing from a passing
shortwave interacting with the front.

A weak area of high pressure was located just to the west across
southern Ontario, and should be the driving force for our weather
today. While the threat of an isolated rain shower will exist mainly
in high terrain areas and in northwest CT closer to the near
stationary frontal boundary, expect a dry day for most with
continued partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will climb
into the upper 70s (terrain) to mid 80s (valleys), while lows
tonight only fall into 60s to near 70.

Heading into late tonight and Thursday, the aforementioned frontal
boundary will lift north as a warm front into the region, and will
interact with an approaching shortwave across Ontario/Quebec and a
renewed surge of low-level WAA and moisture with southwesterly flow.
This will help spark scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and early evening. Some storms could become
severe as the approach of the shortwave will increase bulk shear,
along with increased surface instability with daytime heating and
increasing dewpoints. SPC maintains a broad Level 1 (marginal) risk
of severe weather for the area, while WPC maintains a broad
Level 1 (marginal) risk for excessive rainfall. Similar
temperatures are expected with PM highs in the 70s/80s and lows
in the 60s/near 70.

Friday will be similar to today as it will be dry for most with weak
surface high pressure building in. However, the frontal boundary is
progged to be across our southern CWA, which will keep the threat of
a diurnally driven shower/storm here. Once again, temperatures will
remain fairly consistent with highs in the 70s/80s and lows in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Daily chances of showers/storms (highest Sunday) persist with
  temperatures near to above mid July normals.

Discussion:

As mentioned in the previous AFD, typical summer weather is
expected through much of the long term period. Daily chances of
showers/storms, while on the low end (slight chance/chance) are
expected each day as zonal flow aloft (with numerous embedded
weak shortwaves) traverse the region. A better chance of
showers/storms looks to arrive Sunday/Monday as a stronger
shortwave embedded in the flow moves across the Great Lakes into
the Northeast. Although it's too early to pinpoint exactly
where and when, some threat for heavy downpours and/or strong
storms are likely to occur at some point during the extended
period.

Daytime temps will likely be in the mid to upper 80s each day in
valley areas with lows in the 60s. It should stay fairly humid
through the period with dewpoints in the 60s outside of higher
terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z/Thu...A frontal boundary has become stationary over
southern NY into southern New England near the I-84 corridor this
morning.  Weak disturbances continues to move along the boundary, as
high pressure continues to try to build in from eastern Great Lakes
Region.  Mid and high clouds remain over the TAFs sites with some
lower stratus developing at KGFL.  We are expecting some MVFR/low
VFR stratus to form at all the TAF sites between 08Z-12Z/WED.  The
stratus will remain in place until 15Z-18Z/WED.  Some mid and high
clouds will linger until another weak disturbance will bring some
thickening of the clouds, as well as some scattered showers or
isolated thunderstorms late in the afternoon into the evening
period.  We included PROB30 groups at KPSF/KPOU for
showers/thunderstorms late in the TAF cycle with MVFR conditions.

The winds will be light from the north/northwest at 5 KT or less
this morning and then will vary from the east/southeast to the
north/northwest at 7 KT or less in the late morning through the
afternoon before becoming light and variable a 4 KT or less tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday to Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Frugis/Speck
AVIATION...Wasula



Office: OKX FXUS61 KOKX 090701 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 301 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary near the region through Thursday. The front should then push south of the area Friday into Saturday. A weak frontal system may pass to the north Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Most shower activity early this morning has remained to our north with dry conditions to start the day. A more well defined shortwave trough attempts to dig down across the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. There may be some subtle pieces of energy ahead of the main trough this afternoon and early evening. Sea breeze convergence along with the stalled front will be the main trigger for any afternoon convection. Coverage of showers/storms looks less compared to Tuesday afternoon and evening. The convective focus looks most likely south of the area across the Middle Atlantic where an MCV will pass through late in the day and early evening. This is also where SPC has focused the higher severe thunderstorm risk (slight). PWATs may end up a bit lower than recent days ranging from 1.75-2.00 inches, but high enough that any shower/storm that develops will have potential to produce locally heavy downpours. WPC has maintained a marginal risk for excessive rainfall supporting a continued localized flash flood threat. Slight modification to the air mass is anticipated with guidance continuing to signal 850 temps about 1-2C cooler than on Tuesday. Highs today will reach the upper 80s for much of the area with some of the usual warmer locations in NE NJ and NYC metro around 90 degrees. Dew points still look to be in the lower 70s this morning with potential of them mixing out slightly in the afternoon, particularly across NE NJ and NYC metro. The SW flow away from the sea breeze is weak, but there is enough dry air to mix down to allow dew points to fall into the upper 60s. Max heat indices overall should peak in the lower 90s with a few spots briefly hitting 95, mainly in urban NE NJ and parts of the NYC metro. This looks mostly isolated and not widespread enough to warrant the issuance of a heat advisory. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase tonight as the upper trough settles over the northeast. The slight amplification in the flow should help pull up another wave of low pressure along the stalled front over the area. There is also some jet stream support as the region may lie within the right entrance region of a 90-100 kt 250 mb jet streak over northern New England. Showers should increase in coverage late tonight with some embedded thunderstorms possible. The activity will have some movement, limited flooding potential, but still cannot rule out some minor flooding. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Showers may persist early Thursday morning, but the associated weak wave should push east shortly after day break. The upper trough axis will swing across New England the rest of Thursday. The frontal boundary that has been nearly stationary will continue to remain nearby. Some uncertainty in convective coverage in the afternoon and evening, but the threat persists for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall. WPC has maintained the marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Thursday. SPC has much of the area in a marginal risk for a severe thunderstorm as well, with the main threat damaging wind gusts. The upper trough pushes offshore Thursday night. Heights should begin rising into Friday with the stalled front weakening/washing out. The flow aloft is relatively flat, but subtle energy may be enough to develop scattered showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, mainly away from the coast. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to be a bit cooler than recent days with readings in the upper 70s/lower 80s east and lower to middle 80s elsewhere. It should be a bit warmer on Friday with highs in the lower to middle 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... No major changes made to the forecast Saturday through next Tuesday. Most guidance shows a weak ridge building Saturday. Global guidance still varies on solutions Sunday into Monday, but are starting to point to another frontal system at some point during this time frame. Generally southerly flow is expected for most of the long-term period. This should keep dewpoints and atmospheric moisture high and continue chances for daily showers and thunderstorms through Monday. Mainly slight chance POPs east with low-end chance POPs west where daily instability from daytime heating could be stronger. Temperatures through the long-term period will generally be close to just above climatological norms. Highs each day will be in the mid/upper 80s to around 90 in the warmest spots. Lows each night will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s. However, the difference between NBM's 25th and 75th percentiles for max temperatures is about 15 degrees Saturday through Monday, further highlighting the uncertainty and disagreement among the guidance in the long- term period. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A stationary frontal boundary remains within the region through the TAF period. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. However, occasional MVFR conditions are possible with showers and thunderstorms at times during the TAF period. Much uncertainty with the exact timing of showers and thunderstorms. Overall, these look more probable for the last half of the TAF period, around and after 00Z Thursday. Winds will be generally S-SW near 5-10 kt for much of the TAF period. Some gusts to near 20 kt will be possible at times. Some terminals will be variable with their wind direction with lighter wind speeds at 5 kts or less particularly for the late night into morning hours. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely to refine the timing of showers and thunderstorms which could vary by a few hours compared to TAF. Amendments possible to include wind gusts to near 20 kt if they become more frequent. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Late tonight: Potential MVFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. IFR possible at times. Otherwise, mainly VFR outside of showers and thunderstorms. Thursday: Potential MVFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. IFR possible at times. Otherwise, mainly VFR outside of showers and thunderstorms. Friday: MVFR or lower possible at times with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly near and northwest of NYC terminals. Otherwise, mainly VFR outside of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday: MVFR or lower possible at times with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly northwest of NYC terminals. Otherwise, mainly VFR outside of showers and thunderstorms. Sunday: MVFR or lower possible at times with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly near and northwest of NYC terminals. Otherwise, mainly VFR outside of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... A weak pressure gradient into the upcoming weekend will bring winds and seas below SCA levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Any shower or thunderstorm today into Thursday has the potential to produce locally heavy downpours. WPC has maintained a marginal risk for excessive rainfall with a continued localized flash flooding threat. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A moderate rip current risk is forecast at all ocean beaches into this evening due to to incoming 3-4 ft/7-8s swell. The moderate risk continues for all but the NYC beaches for on Thursday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...BR/DS AVIATION...JM MARINE...BR/DS HYDROLOGY...DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Office: BUF FXUS61 KBUF 090616 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 216 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A bubble of high pressure over the region will bring mainly dry weather through tonight, although there is a low risk for a shower or thunderstorm with a frontal boundary just off to our south. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday as the frontal boundary lifts north across the region. Drier weather returns for Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Stationary boundary remain just off to our southeast early this morning as a bubble of high pressure resides over the region. Satellite imagery showing an expanding area of stratus and fog (some dense) across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. The stratus and fog will remain in place through mid morning, before mid and high level clouds increase as the boundary to our south starts to lift northward. For the most part, today looks dry with the bubble of high pressure in place, but as the boundary moves closer we could see some isolated convection develop this afternoon as instability increases. Best chances across the Southern Tier and along any lake breeze circulations. Additional low chances for showers exist tonight as the boundary moves closer and a weak upper wave passes close to the region. May be enough elevated instability to support a non-zero chance for thunderstorms with any showers. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A deep southerly flow will persist along the east coast late in the week. A mid-level trough across northern Ontario Thursday will move towards northern New England before lifting back north into Quebec Friday. A broad area of lower pressure will be across the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley. Showers are possible in the morning, however better coverage is expected Thursday afternoon. Daytime heating with modest deep layer moisture will allow for showers and a few thunderstorms through the early evening. A belt of 25-30kt westerly flow will round the trough across the region. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from the Genesee Valley and east. Showers and any storms will weaken and or move east of the forecast area Thursday night. Weak low-level flow flow may result in fog formation, especially if clouds clear out early. There will be little change in MSLP on Friday with weak winds across the forecast area. Mid-level ridging will build into the region Friday. There remains modest moisture especially for areas to the south, so while most of the forecast area will be dry, can't rule out widely scattered showers during peak heating, mainly near the Pennsylvania State Line. Mostly dry weather will persist through Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A low amplitude shortwave ridge will move across the eastern Great Lakes region Saturday. Increasing temperatures and moisture may result in very warm and humid conditions across the region. Daytime highs could reach the upper 80s to low 90s. The ridge will move east Sunday while an approaching trough flattens across the central Great Lakes region. An area of low pressure and associated cold front may support showers and thunderstorms across the region Sunday. Zonal flow and surface high pressure will start the work week with low chances for showers and thunderstorms. Above normal temperatures are anticipated this weekend into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Plenty of low level moisture will remain in place this morning with low stratus and fog bringing IFR conditions. Highest confidence in low conditions at KART and KJHW. Once the stratus and fog mixes out, VFR weather expected today. Increase in higher level clouds through the day with generally light winds. Isolated risk for showers or thunderstorms this afternoon, favoring inland of Lake Erie (KJHW) will become more in numbers late this afternoon and this evening including KIAG and KBUF as a prefrontal trough ahead of a cold front draws near far WNY. Outlook... Tonight into Thursday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible. Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday and Sunday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible. && .MARINE... Generally light winds and sub-advisory conditions over Lakes Erie and Ontario through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to pass through the region tonight into Thursday morning that could lead to gusty winds and choppy conditions. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...TMA MARINE...Brothers/TMA
Office: BGM FXUS61 KBGM 090954 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 554 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Times of clouds and sun today and remaining humid with just a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorms in the afternoon and at night. Showers and storms become more widespread Thursday, especially in the afternoon. Quite warm and humid Friday through the weekend with the next chance of widespread showers and storms arriving later in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 305 AM Update... Areas of low clouds and fog will be around to start early this morning, and some of the fog will be locally dense in the valleys. This is expected to clear by 12-14Z. Surface high pressure over the area will slide off to the east this afternoon and an upper level trough and embedded shortwave will gradually move in from the west. A frontal boundary will also be fairly stationary just south and east of the CWA over northern/central NJ and southeast PA. As a result, a mix of sun and clouds is expected and it will be humid with dew points in the mid and upper 60s. There can be an isolated pop up shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon, but model soundings look pretty dry in the low and mid levels, and PoPs are less than 25%. Highs today will be primarily in the low and mid 80s, while the Wyoming and Delaware River Valleys in NE PA remain quite warm in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. The upper trough will continue to slowly press eastward tonight but much of the area is expected to be largely dry. There is a wave of low pressure that looks to move northeastward from the mid-Atlantic to NJ along the stalled boundary with a plume of moisture-rich air, and this can skirt the Poconos with spotty showers tonight, mainly during the evening. Lows tonight will mainly be in the lower to mid 60s. The next frontal boundary will start to approach from the west Thursday. Ahead of the front, a strong Bermuda high will continue to spread plenty of moisture-rich air north over the mid- Atlantic region and southern New England. While the bulk of this deep moisture stays to our south and east, warm and humid conditions ahead of the front and the upper trough still overhead will lead to instability and the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday, primarily during the afternoon. Some of the storms Thursday could be strong and contain gusty to locally damaging winds with 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE (with higher values on the NAM), 25-30 knots of shear and steep low-level lapse rates in place, but mid-level lapse rates look marginal at this time around 5-6 degrees C/km. The SPC does have the entire CWA outlooked with a marginal risk for severe storms at this time. Highs Thursday again will be in the low to mid 80s with some valley locations reaching the upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 200 AM Forecast... Lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the late evening hours Thursday night. Instability decreases with the lost of daytime heating, limiting the potential for any strong storms lingering into the overnight hours. The trough that will support the showers/storms lifts north late overnight, allowing conditions to dry out as a ridge of high pressure begins to build into the region. A ridge continues to build into the region Friday. Weak waves will try to kick off some afternoon showers and non-severe thunderstorms. Drier air in place may be tough to overcome though, especially over CNY. While chances are low, the best shower/storm chances will be over NEPA and the Catskills where there will be slightly more moisture available. Any showers/storms that develop come to an end by Friday night. Temperatures both nights will be in the 60s. Temperatures will climb into the 80s on Friday. Dew points in the mid to to low 70s will result in muggy conditions. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 200 AM Forecast... The weekend will start out mostly dry but a warm front will move through on Saturday, which could support showers and thunderstorms late in the day. Conditions then dry out overnight before shower chances increase and become a bit more widespread Sunday as a cold front approaches and eventually sweeps through the region. There is uncertainty on the timing of the front as the GFS is quick to move it through while the ECMWF is much slower with it. Due to this uncertainty, shower chances will carry over into Monday given the slower solutions, but then high pressure builds into the region following the frontal passage. Drier conditions are expected by Monday night and last through at least Tuesday. Spotty showers may be possible Tuesday but with dry air in place, it may be a challenge for anything to develop. It will be a warm and muggy weekend after the warm front passes through. Highs will be 80s and low 90s with dewpoints in the 60s and low 70s. The cold front will be weak and brings little relief as temperatures will remain in the 80s to start next week. Saturday night will be the warmest night of this period with lows only in the mid 60s to low 70s but then 60s are expected for the rest of the nights into early next week. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Areas of low clouds and fog, primarily near ITH and ELM, are expected to diminish by 14Z. VFR conditions are then expected through much of the rest of the TAF period. There is a slight chance of a pop up afternoon shower or thunderstorm, but confidence is too low to include at any of the terminals. Spotty showers and some lower ceilings may also skirt AVP tonight, but the bulk of the shower activity is expected to pass by to the south and east. Model soundings do support the development of some shallow fog later tonight and early tomorrow morning, especially around ITH and ELM. Winds will be light throughout the forecast period. Outlook... Thursday...Restrictions possible with some showers and thunderstorms around. Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday into Sunday...Scattered showers/storms possible and associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DK NEAR TERM...DK SHORT TERM...BTL LONG TERM...BTL AVIATION...DK