ny discuss
Office: ALY
FXUS61 KALY 191129
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
729 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to allow for dry weather today with
temperatures a little warmer compared to yesterday. Warm and
humid weather will return for tomorrow ahead of a cold front.
Some scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be
strong are expected to accompany the frontal passage. Cooler,
drier and less humid weather will return for early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:
-Marginal to Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms on Sunday
ahead of a cold front. A line of thunderstorms is expected
Sunday late morning through the afternoon hours ahead of the
front with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.
Discussion:
As of 206 AM EDT...Surface high pressure (around 1021 mb) is
centered over central and eastern Upstate New York early this
morning. IR satellite imagery shows completely clear skies and
surface observations is showing calm winds. This has resulted
good radiational cooling any most areas with start out the day
in the lower to middle 50s (some upper 40s across the highest
terrain). This is one of the cooler morning so far for the month
of July. Some patchy fog could develop in a few spots, but the
short duration of the overnight hours, dry air mass in place and
lack of recent rainfall for many spots should prevent this from
occurring on a widespread basis.
Through the day today, it will continue to be dry as high
pressure slides eastward. Winds will gradually become southerly
by the afternoon hours thanks to the return flow and highs temps
will be a few degrees warmer compared to Friday. While high
terrain areas may stay in the 70s, most valleys will reach the
lower to middle 80s. Skies will be fairly sunny, although some
passing clouds are possible by afternoon. Although dew points
will start out fairly low, they may return into the 60s by late
today thanks to the developing southerly flow.
Surface warm front will be lifting northward across the area
overnight. A few showers are possible across southeastern areas
by the late night hours. In addition, a few showers or even a
rumble of thunder is possible across far northern areas towards
daybreak as well, as the main frontal system starts approaching
from the west. Otherwise, it will be partly to mostly cloudy
tonight with lows in the 60s and humidity on the increase.
Our region will be in a warm sector ahead of an approaching cold
front for Sunday. Models have backed the timing of this boundary
slightly, so it now looks to mainly cross during the afternoon
hours. Ahead of the front, model soundings suggest a good amount
of instability, with SBCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range,
which will be aided by surface dewpoints in the lower 70s.
Although mid level lapse rates may be rather marginal and some
dry air aloft could limit convection, there should be a decent
overlap of instability and shear, as model soundings suggest 0-6
km bulk shear reaching 30-40 kts. CAMs shows a broken line of
thunderstorms ahead of the front passing from west to east from
the late morning through the late afternoon hours. With steep
low level lapse rates and plenty of DCAPE, damaging wind gusts
will be a threat, especially if any linear features develop as
shown in the both the 3km HRRR and NAMNest. SPC has added a
slight risk for southeastern areas, with a marginal in place for
the rest of the area and this makes sense considering the
forecast soundings and hodographs. It should be fairly warm and
muggy ahead of the front with valley highs into the 80s.
Once the front crosses, cooler and less humid air will pour into
the region for Sunday night, with convection ending from west
to east by evening. Dewpoints will be quickly falling thanks to
the drier westerly flow with lows down into the 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The start of the long term period looks very quiet, as high
pressure will keep it dry for Monday into at least Tuesday.
Daytime temps will be comfortable in the 70s with low dewpoints.
Good radiational cooling may allow for a cool night on Monday
night with lows down into the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Some moderation will start to occur for Wednesday into Friday,
as surface high pressure passing offshore will allow for the low
level flow to return out of the south and temps aloft and
heights start to build. There could be a return to some hot and
humid weather for the late week, with NBM suggesting daytime
highs back into the upper 80s to low 90s for many valley and
urban areas by Thursday into Friday. There could be a need for
some heat-related headlines if this guidance continues to hold.
Next chance for convection may also return by Thursday into
Friday, as approaching upper level disturbance could allow for
some showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. For now, POPs are limited to Slight Chance to
Chance range, but will need to monitor the potential for strong
storms.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at area TAF sites with
south/southwest winds under 10 knots. MVFR ceilings are
forecast to develop after 04Z as a warm front lifts through the
region. While there will be sufficient instability for
convection early Sunday morning, the likelihood of
showers/thunderstorms was too low to include in the TAFs at this
time.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Humphrey
Office: OKX
FXUS61 KOKX 191600
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1200 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to shift offshore this afternoon into
Sunday morning. A warm front then looks to pass through sometime
late tonight into Sunday morning. A cold front will follow
Sunday evening. High pressure then dominates through Wednesday.
A cold front slowly approaches late Thursday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure centered just north of the area will continue to
move offshore into this afternoon. A frontal boundary currently
draped over the Delmarva starts to gradually return north as a
warm front into this evening. Aloft, a mostly zonal flow
transitions to some lowering heights ahead of a shortwave.
Temperatures remain on track and look to settle into the lower
to middle 80s for daytime maxes. With high pressure shifting
offshore, a return flow sets up and brings a steady increase in
moisture to the area ahead of the warm front, therefore dew
point readings rise, especially further south across the area
late this afternoon into this evening.
With the increasing moisture and lift ahead of the approaching
shortwave some showers are possible starting this afternoon, but
mainly for southwestern portions of the area. Confidence is not
too high in this and PoPs are a touch lower than the NBM for
the afternoon, mainly due to the given proximity of the high and
latest CAM iterations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned warm front looks to move through sometime
tonight into early Sunday morning. Confidence in showers and
thunderstorms increases during this period, especially for the
eastern half of the area. Given the potential for pwats around
2 inches, any activity should be able to produce heavy
downpours. See Hydrology section below. It is worth noting that
in latest guidance there is some hints that the warm front does
not push all the way through the area and may skirt by the
southern half briefly before pushing east/northeast. This could
have potential impacts on moisture and convective activity.
There may then be a dry period the rest of Sunday morning into
Sunday afternoon. Before the severe thunderstorm threat, hot
and humid conditions are expected with highs now forecast to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s.
The NBM temperatures have trended up a bit and this combination
is giving more widespread 95 to 99 heat index values and a
couple areas right around 100. Given this is only one day of
these conditions, no Heat Advisory is expected at this time,
however, if temperatures and humidity trend up again, an
Advisory can not be completely ruled out if the one day
criteria of widespread 100 heat index is reached.
Attention then turns to potential severe thunderstorm activity
with an approaching cold front. Ahead of the front, the area
looks to be able to destabilize to 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The
cold front appears decently strong for this time of year with a
sharp moisture gradient. 0-6km bulk shear will also be about 30
to 35 kts. This combination could result in scattered severe
thunderstorms Sunday evening. The SPC has introduced a slight
risk for our area. The main concern is wind, given no
significant directional shear through the layer. Large hail can
also not be completely ruled out, especially in any discrete
cells that form before an eventual potential cluster/broken
line forms. Forecast storm motion looks somewhat perpendicular
to the front which may allow the earlier activity to be more
discrete, so the hail threat favors more north and west of NYC.
High pressure builds in behind the cold front Sunday night and
leads to quiet conditions through Monday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
***KEY POINT***
* Heat and humidity return for the end of next week.
An extended period of quiet weather is expected during the long
term forecast as an upper ridge building into Thursday, and
then weakening as another shortwave trough moves into eastern
Canada and the northeast late Thursday into Friday. At the
surface high pressure dominates into Thursday. A weak surface
trough develops inland Wednesday afternoon with a slight chance
of precipitation. A stronger surface trough develops for late
Thursday into Thursday night with high pressure weakening and
shifting south and east. And there will be higher, and more
widespread, chances for precipitation. Temperatures will be near
seasonal normals through Tuesday night, then the heat will
build with temperatures above normal Wednesday into the end of
the week. Humidity levels will also be increasing beginning
Wednesday as a return flow setup up later Wednesday with high
pressure moving east of the area. For Thursday and Friday with
the combination of heat, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s,
and humidity, with dew points in the lower 70s, there is the
potential for a heat advisory for Thursday and Friday with a 2
day period of heat indices reaching 95 to 103 across much of the
area.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure moves offshore this afternoon, giving way to a
warm front approaching from the south this evening. The warm
front is forecast to pass over Long Island through late tonight
into Sunday morning. A cold front approaches Sun afternoon,
crossing Sun evening.
VFR through evening push, although a brief shower is possible
this afternoon. Increasing likelihood of MVFR cigs for most
terminals overnight (aft 03z). Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms overnight into Sun am push, highest
confidence is for the coastal terminals east of NYC/Nj metro.
Light N/NE or variable winds become southerly at 5-10kt this
afternoon into evening, then light SW or variable late tonight
into Sun AM push.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Spotty showers possible for Sat aft/eve push. Low and sparse
coverage of tsra after 03z through Sun AM push. MVFR conds
likely after 03z thru Sun AM push.
Timing of MVFR and TSRA may be off by 1-2 hours and need to
refined.
S winds to 15 kt likely for KJFK, possible for KLGA, btwn 20z
and 24z with coastal jet this afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: MVFR AM, improving to VFR late morning. MVFR or lower
conds and W/NW winds gust in excess of 30kt in any
showers/thunderstorms along and ahead of an approaching cold
during the late afternoon/early evening hours. SW winds 10g15kt
Sun aft/evening.
Sunday night through Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and waves look to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through next week with a weak pressure gradient in place.
However, there is potential for severe thunderstorms Sunday
evening. Locally stronger wind gusts and higher waves are
possible in any thunderstorm.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread hydrologic impacts are not anticipated through this
weekend. However, with potential precipitable waters values
around 2 inches, any thunderstorms could produce brief/locally
heavy rain rainfall. Higher overall chances of thunderstorms
would be Sunday afternoon, but storms would be moving quickly
enough to mitigate a flash flooding threat.
There are no hydrologic impacts expected from Sunday night through
next week with dry weather much of the time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk for Saturday and Sunday is low at all the
ocean beaches with 2-ft southerly wind waves at 4 to 6-sec
period and S winds mostly 10 kt or less.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...JE/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Office: BUF
FXUS61 KBUF 191023
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
623 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will exit across New England and out to sea today...
while still providing our area with dry and seasonably warm weather.
A wavy cold front will then bring another round of showers and
scattered thunderstorms tonight and Sunday morning...before another
area of high pressure builds across our region and provides us with
dry weather for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will slide across New England and out to sea
today...while broad...low-amplitude troughing and a corresponding
weak/wavy surface cold front make their way across the Upper Great
Lakes. This next system will remain too far to our west to bring
much more than a very modest increase in mid and high clouds to our
area during the afternoon... with fair dry weather continuing to
prevail. With some warming of our airmass developing around the
backside of the departing ridge... daytime highs will climb back
into the lower to mid 80s in most places...with a few spots in the
Genesee Valley reaching the upper 80s. Dewpoints will also climb
back to the lower half of the 60s...thereby lending a somewhat more
humid feel to our warming airmass.
Tonight the low-amplitude trough will continue to gradually dig and
extend eastward across our region as an embedded shortwave slides
through its southern periphery...while at the surface the associated
wavy cold front looks to make it to about Lakes Erie and Ontario by
the start of Sunday morning. This system will bring a continued
increase in synoptic moisture as it approaches...with precipitable
water values climbing to between 1.5 and 2 inches. Coupled with lift
provided first by the passage of the aforementioned shortwave and
then the approach of the surface cold front...this will generally
bring an increasing potential for showers and some scattered
thunderstorms as we push through the late evening and overnight
hours...which is reflected in the forecast by PoPs increasing into
the likely range. This being said...the short term guidance suite
continues to exhibit differences in just how well the initial
convection attendant to the lead shortwave will hold together during
the late evening and early overnight hours...with some packages
looking rather anemic in this respect given the potential for the
warm waters of Lakes Erie and Ontario to provide sustenance. For now
have stuck pretty close to blended guidance for PoPs...with the
better pcpn chances accompanying the approach of the wavy cold front
later on in the night.
At this juncture...the potential for strong to severe storms appears
to be lessening given the unfavorable later-night timing to the
convection...which will help to keep instability levels modest at
best across our area. This being said...there is certainly enough
shear in place to result in a non-zero risk of a stronger storm or
two with isolated damaging wind gusts...with this especially the
case across portions of far WNY closest to Lakes Erie and Ontario
where the warm lake waters could help to give the convection a
boost. Isolated locally heavy rainfall also cannot be completely
ruled out given the increased atmospheric moisture content...though
this would likely require training of heavier convective cells given
the relatively quick flow aloft.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front directly over the region to start the period Sunday
will trek southeast and move out of the forecast area by the late
morning hours. Lingering scattered showers and/or thunderstorms
along this front will move further inland from the lakes and clear
out in tandem as a large expanse of Canadian-sourced high pressure
builds back in from the northwest. Relatively cooler, quieter, and
less humid weather should then prevail through the rest of the
period with valley fog possible Sunday night and Monday night.
Temperatures Monday and Monday night in particular will average some
5-10 degrees below normal for mid to late July. Could see sfc
temperatures Monday night being several degrees cooler than
currently forecast with 850H temps on either side of +8C and good
radiational cooling in place, potentially leading to low/mid 40s
across parts of the interior. In addition...This cool airmass
flowing over the very warm lake waters and limited low level
moisture could potentially lead to more lake effect clouds than
forecast or even some isolated showers/sprinkles over the Finger
Lakes.
Temps (and to a lesser extent dewpoints) recover a several degrees
Tuesday and Tuesday night as the high begins to move east of the
area, though remaining dry.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The area of high pressure that will bring cooler and drier weather
earlier in the week will move into the western Atlantic Wednesday
through Thursday as mid/upper level ridging dominates the southern
CONUS. Deepening offshore anticyclonic flow will force a warm front
through the region on Wednesday, opening the door to increasing heat
and humidity through the end of the week. Heat indices Thursday and
Friday could reach advisory levels, though confidence is low as
spread among the NBM percentiles becomes quite large by this point,
while its dewpoints look vastly overdone in some areas.
In addition to the return of summer's warmth, shower and
thunderstorm chances begin to ramp up again later Wednesday night
through Thursday and remain elevated through Friday as the airmass
becomes increasingly unstable and several shortwaves take aim at the
region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Any limited patchy valley fog will quickly dissipate this morning
with renewed daytime heating/mixing...with widespread VFR conditions
then prevailing through the balance of the day as high pressure
remains in control of our weather while sliding off the New England
coast.
Tonight a wavy cold front will approach our region from the central
Great Lakes...with this feature reaching Lakes Erie and Ontario by
12z Sunday. This will bring an increasing likelihood of showers and
scattered thunderstorms with associated restrictions as we push
through the night...while ceilings gradually lower to MVFR/localized
IFR across the higher terrain and MVFR/low VFR across the lower
elevations.
Outlook...
Sunday...IFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
morning, then improvement to VFR.
Monday through Wednesday...VFR...with localized river valley fog/IFR
possible each late night and early morning.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will keep quiet conditions in place across the Lower
Great Lakes region today, with continued weak large-scale flow
allowing local lake breezes to develop again this afternoon.
The next chance for disturbed weather will then arrive tonight, when
a wavy cold frontal boundary will make its way across the Lower
Great Lakes, bringing a renewed threat for showers and scattered
thunderstorms. The front is then forecast to slip south of Lakes
Erie and Ontario later Sunday morning with Canadian high pressure
then providing dry weather later Sunday through Tuesday.
A brief period of elevated northerlies in the wake of the cold front
will bring choppy conditions Sunday night...especially along the
southern Lake Ontario shoreline where conditions may approach
marginal low-end Small Craft Advisory criteria. Generally light to
modest winds and minimal waves will then follow for Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JM/JJR
Office: BGM
FXUS61 KBGM 191626
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1226 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather conditions Saturday will be replaced by a brief
period of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight
and Sunday. A cool and dry air mass settles in Monday and
Tuesday before the heat and humidity return later in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main concerns in the near term are focused on the threat for a
few pop up showers and weak storms, mainly over northeast PA
this afternoon, and the next round of convection potentially
rolling through tonight, but with a secondary (more likely)
period of showers and storms Sunday afternoon.
Large scale pattern across the Great Lakes and Northeast US
will be defined by broad, weak cyclonic flow aloft today and
tomorrow. However, in the low levels and at the surface a weak
area of high pressure will drift eastward through the interior
Northeast today and off the coast on Sunday. This feature
combined with a narrow wedge of drier air should keep conditions
dry for most of central NY today. There is a weak stationary
front oriented west-to-east across the Mid Atlantic region this
morning that may (15-25% chance) trigger some scattered showers
or isolated weak thunderstorms over northeast PA and points
south this afternoon. If anything does get going later today,
the convection should be mostly disorganized and not impactful.
Conditions are not ideal and confidence is low concerning
convection today in ne PA. The forcing along the front to the
south is generally weak and given the abundance of cloud cover
to the south, where there is more deep layer moisture and more
available instability this afternoon, any convection that does
initiate should have a very difficult time becoming deep and
mature. Model forecast soundings are also indicating the
presence of an inversion around 10-15k ft that will likely limit
the depth of growth. ML CAPE values generally less than 500
J/kg and shallow low and mid level lapse rates, along with less
than 30 kt of shear will keep a lid on the threat for severe
storms today.
One feature we will be watching later today and tonight will be
the evolution of a potential MCS coming out of the Midwest. The
current area of convection in IL has an eastward track, but
there is still uncertainty with respect to how it will move and
interact with a short wave dropping in from Canada. At this time
it appears that any lingering convection will be light and
scattered in nature when it moves across NY/PA early Saturday
morning. Will need to watch this.
The main period of potentially strong to severe storms will be
the late morning and afternoon time frame Sunday when the
primary trough/cold front pushes through NW to SE. Much of this
potential will depend on how much the early morning convection
lingers or keeps the boundary layer too well-mixed and doesn't
allow the instability to build enough for deep convection to
result later in the day. This appears to be a very conditional
environment setting up. The greatest threat area appears to be
east and south of Binghamton, NY...which also aligns where SPC
has the Slight Risk for Sunday.
The passage of the front is expected to be between 4-8 PM from
just east/south of the Finger Lakes when the convection starts
to develop through the Catskills and Poconos by the evening. The
main threat appears to be damaging wind gusts, but some hail
can't be ruled out. The threat for heavy rain and flash flooding
appears to be low (5% or less) given the very progressive
movement of the storms along the front, and the lack of deep
moisture (PW around 1.5 inches).
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A period of relatively quiet weather will set up in short term,
with the exception of Sunday night when a narrow ribbon of
moisture will drop south from Ontario and bring with it some
cooler air that will interact with the warm waters of the lake
to produce some lake enhanced rain showers and cloud cover over
western and central NY.
There will likely be a window where isolated rain showers perk
up across the Finger Lakes and the Southern Tier of NY early
Monday morning due to some weak lake and terrain enhancement
south of Lake Ontario. There is a narrow corridor of slightly
higher PWs (around 0.75 to 1 inch), embedded within the mostly
drier air mass, that could interact with some lake influence to
produce a period of increased low/mid level cloud cover and
isolated rain showers. No significant impacts are expected from
this.
Later Monday morning the dry air will dominate and allow the
skies to clear out and remain clear through Monday night.
Temperatures will warm nicely into the mid to upper 70s Monday
afternoon with low humidity (dew points in the 50s). A coolish
night is expected Mon night with overnight lows in the upper 40s
and lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level ridging starts to build on Tuesday along with a
surface high into the Great Lakes. This large scale suppression
combined with a warming air mass will keep conditions quiet/dry
and allow the heat to gradually build through the week. Tuesday
temperatures and humidity will still be mostly comfortable with
highs in the lower 80s and dew points in the 50s...and overnight
lows Tue night in the mid to upper 50s.
However, by Wed the transition will begin back to more summer-
like with highs in the mid to upper 80s and dew points back in
the lower 60s. The ridge and large scale suppression will likely
still dominate the region on Wednesday, but there is a chance
the ridge starts to break down on Thursday and definitely by
Friday with increasing chances for scattered afternoon/evening
showers and storms. Heat indices in the 90s will return by Thu
and Fri as well.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions expected until later tonight. A marine
layer stratus deck will possibly work its way into AVP towards
around midnight and may also push farther north into BGM and ELM
during the early morning hours on Sunday. Finally, a frontal
system will be approaching the region on Sunday morning and a
prefrontal trough could bring some MVFR rain showers into SYR
and RME towards the end of the forecast period.
Outlook...
Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.
Monday through Wednesday..Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MPK
