ny discuss
Office: ALY
FXUS61 KALY 061856
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
256 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions continue into tomorrow with
chances for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Unsettled
conditions continue into Tuesday before dry conditions return
briefly for Wednesday. The rest of the week will come with
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms, though oppressive
heat does not look to pose an issue for the foreseeable future.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message:
- Heat Advisories continue through 8 PM tonight for portions of
the Mohawk, Hudson, and Connecticut River Valleys where heat
index values will reach 95 to 98.
Discussion:
Ridging aloft driving dry conditions across most of the region
has flattened as a result of a deepening shortwave trough
upstream over the western Great Lakes. This has allowed some
pin- head showers to pop up in the Mohawk and Upper Hudson
Valleys and Southwest Adirondacks this afternoon as subsequent,
weak height falls and warm, moist conditions force sufficient
instability and vertical ascent. An isolated rumble of thunder
will be possible through this afternoon should a cell or two
grow tall enough, but with the -20C level almost 27kft AGL and
opposing subsidence limiting growth, this isn't a high
probability.
The loss of daytime heating will yield the end to all shower
activity this evening, such that regionwide dry conditions will
prevail once again. The overnight period will therefore also be
dry with the ridge looking to potentially undergo some minor
amplification and surface high pressure remaining nearby. And
while the Heat Advisory currently in effect will expire at 8 PM,
the moist airmass currently in place will ensure no respite to
humid conditions. Low temperatures will only fall to the 60s
with pockets of 70s in valley areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message:
- Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible in the
Southwest Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley Monday afternoon with
the prime threats being strong wind gusts and locally heavy
downpours.
- Additional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated Monday
evening through Tuesday, resulting from both the remnants of
what is now Tropical Storm Chantal and a stalled frontal
boundary.
Discussion:
Tranquility lingers into tomorrow morning with conditions
remaining hot and humid as deep southerly flow advects tropical
moisture into the region. However, with the anticipation of
increased cloud cover over the region, air temperatures will not
achieve values as high as today. Expect low 80s to low 90s with
heat indices ranging from the low 80s to upper 90s. Additional
heat advisories may be needed in portions of the Hudson and
Mohawk River Valleys, but have held off with this package so as
not to pose confusion in an overlap with the advisory that is
currently in effect.
Outside of temperatures, tomorrow's forecast sustains a bit of
complexity. With very warm, moist antecedent conditions and
anticipated breaks of sun through inconsistent cloud cover,
destabilization of the atmosphere will be easily achieved,
especially along and north of I-90 where morning sun will give
way to increasing cloud cover later in the day as a weak
shortwave aloft and area of low pressure riding along a surface
cold front approach from the northwest. South of here, clouds,
though inconsistent in coverage as previously stated, will be on
the increase ahead of the remnants of what is currently
Tropical Storm Chantal and therefore lessen the extent of
instability achieved in comparison to areas north. High
pressure over the western Atlantic and the aforementioned
shortwave trough will compress the moist conveyer belt along
the Eastern Coastline, allowing anomalous moisture to stream
into the region ahead of the remnants' weak height falls. All
this said, there will be two areas of showers and potential
thunderstorms that subsequently impact the region tomorrow.
Ahead of the aforementioned cold front and shortwave, SBCAPE
values around 1500 to 2000 J/kg will intersect about 20 to 30
kt of 0-6km shear and mid-level lapse rates around 6.0 C/km.
With near unidirectional flow throughout the column running
nearly parallel to the incoming boundary, some marginally
organized convection will become possible across the Southwest
Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley where a Marginal Risk (level 1 of
5) for severe weather is currently in place. The greatest threat
with any isolated severe thunderstorms will be strong to
locally damaging wind gusts with warm cloud processes promoting
heavy downpours. South of these areas, the moisture surging
ahead of the very diffuse, remnant circulation of Chantal will
intersect SBCAPE values ranging from 1000 to 1500 J/kg, mid-
level lapse rates around 5.5 J/kg, and shear around 15 to 20 kt.
Low-level southerly, becoming southwesterly throughout the
column, promotes more discrete cells with unlikely organization
given the very weak dynamic support. And while warm cloud
processes here will also promote heavy downpours, no severe
thunderstorms are anticipated. In fact, latest CAMs show little
in the way of even showers within the favored areas of the
Eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, and southwest New England.
This is likely due to the counteracting subsidence from the
departing ridge and the consensus in the more easterly track of
Chantal's remnant circulation. However, that said, presently
Chantal has tracked farther westward than what was previously
thought, placing it farther inland into North Carolina.
Therefore, it is believed that there is a possibility that the
CAMs are underdone in terms of their coverage of showers and
potential thunderstorms in these areas tomorrow. Should the
circulation, though weak, push farther north and east through
tomorrow, especially if the high in the Atlantic retrogrades
toward the East Coast as some sources of guidance would suggest,
then increased coverage in showers and thunderstorms could be
realized. The good news, however, is that even if this solution
comes to fruition and we get additional showers and
thunderstorms in these areas tomorrow, we have been dry enough
recently that there are no hydrological concerns even with the
anticipation of embedded heavy downpours.
As the remnant circulation of Chantal continues to weaken and
track north and east tomorrow, the aforementioned cold frontal
boundary will slowly sink south and east, its associated
shortwave weakening aloft. The loss of daytime heating tomorrow
will put an end to any thunderstorms that developed as a result
of the progression of the front and as a result of Chantal and
mere light showers will remain. Throughout the night, however,
coverage of showers are expected to decrease as flow turning to
the southwest cuts off the moisture supply. Low temperatures
will fall to the low 60s to low 70s.
The cold frontal boundary and low pressure strung to it will
become stalled just to our south Tuesday night, allowing showers
and potential thunderstorms to become reinvigorated for areas
within and south of the Capital District Tuesday. While
continuing to be very humid, lower air temperatures should
mitigate the necessity for additional Heat Advisories. Highs will
be in the 70s and 80s. The SPC also has a Marginal Risk for
severe thunderstorms outlined for portions of the Eastern
Catskills, Mid- Hudson Valley, and Southwest New England on
Tuesday with the primary threat once again being strong to
locally damaging winds, but confidence is low in this aspect of
the forecast. And as Tuesday transitions into Tuesday night, the
stalled boundary will gradually exit, decreasing the coverage of
showers until all cease early Wednesday morning. Dry conditions
will then be in place courtesy of nearby surface high pressure
and zonal flow aloft Wednesday. Low temperatures Tuesday night
will fall to the upper 50s to upper 60s and highs Wednesday will
be in the upper 70s to upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Our brief precipitation respite continues into the overnight
period Wednesday with low temperatures falling to the upper 50s
to upper 60s. Much of the remainder of the extended
forecast period, however, will sustain chances for showers and
thunderstorm as yet another unsettled pattern becomes locked in.
Though there are still some timing differences in the medium to
long range guidance regarding onset of rain Thursday, more of a
consensus has been formed about the responsible system. A
primary, inland low will track through southeast Canada beneath
a potent shortwave trough whilst a secondary, coastal low forms
east of the Mid-Atlantic. As a result, showers will overspread
the region Thursday from northwest to southeast and from south
to north. Though the coastal low will depart to the northeast
Thursday night, lingering moisture and forcing from the primary
low now overhead will allow light showers to persist. Though
spatial spread in showers will decrease through Friday and into
Saturday, additional rounds and some thunderstorms are expected
especially within, south, and east of the Capital District
courtesy of a frontal boundary and area of low pressure stalled
to the south of our region. At this time, precipitation looks
light and not continuous, so no hydrological concerns are
anticipated. Oppressive heat and humidity is also not expected
throughout the long term period with highs generally in the 70s
and 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Monday...VFR conditions expected to persist for most
sites through the next 24 hours. Only exception may be some low
level stratus clouds with MVFR cigs mainly at KPOU starting a few
hours prior to 12z Monday and possibly making it up to KPSF, but
with lower confidence there. Otherwise, just SCT cumulus clouds
through the early evening then high level clouds increasing tonight
into Monday morning. It will remain dry, although a brief/isolated
-SHRA may occur at KALB early this afternoon and will also mention
PROB30 for TSRA at KPOU starting 15z Monday for some scattered
convection that may develop then. Winds will be south-
southwest at 7- 10 kt, becoming southerly at 3-8 kt tonight.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038-040-041-
043-049-050-052-053-059-060-064-065-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...JPV
Office: OKX
FXUS61 KOKX 062116
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
516 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains offshore into Monday. Weak low pressure
passes nearby Monday afternoon into Monday night. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves over the area Tuesday night. The
front likely stalls nearby the rest of the week leading to
unsettled conditions, potentially into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Warm and increasingly muggy conditions are expected tonight as
high pressure remains offshore. SW flow will advect
increasingly higher dew points through the night and help
increase lower level moisture. Some fog is possible overnight,
especially the eastern half of the area and close to the coast.
There should otherwise be increasing clouds through day break
Monday. Conditions will remain dry as there is no forcing for
any showers through day break. Lows will be in the upper 60s
inland to lower and middle 70s near the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
*Showers and possible thunderstorms late Monday morning into Monday
evening, especially in the vicinity of the NYC metro, NE NJ into
Lower Hudson Valley, could produce locally torrential downpours.
Localized flash flooding is possible from any of these
showers/storms.
*Warm and humid conditions Monday and Tuesday with max heat indices
in the lower 90s Monday and mid to upper 90s on Tuesday.
*Showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening
with a continued chance of locally heavy downpours.
The main concern on Monday will be the development of showers and
possible thunderstorms late morning into the afternoon. The
extratropical remnant circulation of Chantal will likely track over
the Delmarva in the afternoon and then offshore Monday evening and
night. It should be emphasized that the circulation will no longer
be tropical, but leftover tropical moisture will be present
across the northeast. This moisture will act on the sea breeze
boundary as well as some middle level energy to promote the
development of showers and a few thunderstorms. PWATs are quite
high and range from 2-2.25 inches. There is some question to the
amount of instability, but model soundings indicate a long and
relatively skinny CAPE, which is common in more tropical air
masses. Freezing levels look to average around 15kft as well,
supportive of efficient/warm rain processes. The 12z CAMs all
signal convective development across portions of NE NJ into the
Lower Hudson Valley, potentially into the NYC metro. Elsewhere,
showers are possible but coverage looks to be lower and could
just be isolated. No flood watch has been issued at this time,
but WPC has placed NE NJ, NYC metro, and Lower Hudson Valley in
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.
Basin averaged rainfall amounts around one quarter of an inch
possible with some local areas receiving 1-2 inches with higher
amounts. Some locations may see little to no rainfall through Monday
evening.
Focus for showers shifts to the eastern part of the area Monday
night with the weak wave of low pressure passing to our south.
It appears most of the coverage should be offshore, but cannot rule
out some showers or isolated thunderstorms across portions of Long
Island or even southeast Connecticut.
For Tuesday, a cold front slowly approaches from the north and west.
Ahead of the front, tropical moisture will linger with PWATs around
2 inches. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop in the
afternoon and evening along and ahead of the cold front from the NYC
metro on NW. This activity will then slide eastward in the evening
and at night. The main concern from this activity will once again be
torrential downpours and localized flash flooding. WPC continues to
place the entire area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on
Tuesday. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible Tuesday
afternoon/evening and SPC has much of the area in a marginal
risk.
No heat advisories have been issued at this time for Monday and
Tuesday. Temperatures have continued to trend slightly lower for
Monday, likely due to increasing cloud cover and earlier timing of
convection. Highs looks to range from the middle to upper 80s with
max heat indices in the lower 90s. It will be warmer on Tuesday as
highs should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. There is still some
question to the amount of cloud cover and how high dew points will
be in the warmest part of the day. There are hints at the flow
becoming more SW-W which could lower dew points a bit. Heat indices
should be higher, in the middle to upper 90s. Have held off on the
issuance of a heat advisory for Tuesday since this is just one day
occurrence and there is little to no coverage of heat indices
above 100.
The front moves over or just east of the area Tuesday night. The
front may begin stalling nearby, which could promote continued
showers/storms for the eastern half of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The NBM was generally followed given the unsettled nature of
the pattern for the extended period.
A stalled front south of the area on Wednesday will remain in
the general vicinity through the end of the week and into the
weekend. High pressure over the western Atlantic will allow for
the persistent advection of moisture over the front and into the
area through much of the week. This will lead to the
development of scattered showers and storms through much of the
middle and end of the week, though storms are generally more
likely in the afternoon and early evening hours with the
presence of daytime heating.
Additional energy in the flow approaches the area by the end of
the week and may result in another round of showers and storms,
though guidance has been backing off on high pressure building
in thereafter. Unsettled conditions may persist through the
weekend.
Despite the ample cloud cover and general unsettled conditions this
week, temperatures should be right around average for this time of
the year with highs each day in the low to middle 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure this afternoon weakens tonight and Monday as a weak
wave of low pressure approaches from the south.
VFR through this evening with mostly MVFR/IFR developing
overnight. Improvement back to mostly VFR on Monday, however showers
with a chance of thunderstorms starting at around noontime bring
lower flight categories.
S-SW winds 10-15kt with gusts around 20kt bcmg more southerly
tonight and diminishing. Winds pick up from the south on Monday,
increasing back to 10-15kt with possible gusts around 20kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts today may be only occasional.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday through Friday: Primarily VFR each day with mainly afternoon
and evening showers/tstms possible with MVFR or IFR cond. Highest
chance exists from late Mon through Tue evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A few gusts close to 25 kt are possible on the ocean this
afternoon/evening. Otherwise, conditions will remain below
SCA levels on the waters through Monday. Seas begin building
Monday night into Tuesday and may approach 5 ft east of Moriches
Inlet into Tuesday night from a SE swell. Generally weak flow
will result in sub-SCA conditions on all waters through at least
Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Locally torrential downpours are possible late Monday morning into
Monday evening, especially across NE NJ, NYC metro, and Lower Hudson
Valley. This activity could produce localized flash flooding and WPC
has this area in a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall. The risk
for locally torrential downpours and localized flash flooding
remains possible on Tuesday for the entire area. WPC has maintained
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip risk for all beaches will be moderate both Monday and
Tuesday. Surf heights around four ft are likely over the
period, but may increase to near 5ft by Tuesday, especially
across NYC, Nassau and western Suffolk beaches.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005-009.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday for CTZ005-
009.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
176-178.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DS/MW
HYDROLOGY...DS/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Office: BUF
FXUS61 KBUF 061815
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
215 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Ahead of a slow-moving cold front, hot and humid air
will flow into the region with many areas reaching Heat
Advisory criteria this afternoon. The front will bring showers
and thunderstorms to the region Monday with locally heavy
rainfall possible. Mostly dry and more comfortable weather for
Tuesday through Wednesday before becoming unsettled again in the
latter half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Southwesterly flow behind a departing sfc high and ahead of an
approaching sfc low and cold front will result in hot and humid
conditions today. Heat index/apparent temperatures will reach 90+
degrees Fahrenheit today for most of the forecast area, with the
usual warmer locations reaching the mid to upper 90s. These areas
have a Heat Advisory in place from 11am until 8pm this evening, this
includes all of the southern Lake Ontario shoreline counties plus
Genesee, Livingston and Ontario counties. A few scattered
showers/storms will also be possible today, mostly confined to the
North Country where a LLJ will cross the area, providing some
forcing to initiate a few showers/storms. For the rest of the
forecast area, can expect mainly dry weather today. With a
tightening pressure gradient over the region and the above mentioned
LLJ, breezy conditions will be possible through the first part of
the evening.
Tonight, as the sfc low, pre-frontal trough and cold front approach
the region, shower and thunderstorm potential will increase some
across the northwestern portions of the area toward daybreak.
Guidance is still split with the potential for showers/storms within
a few hours of daybreak, with global models and regional models
still bringing showers/storms close to the extreme northwestern
portion of the forecast area by around 12Z. CAM guidance is further
west with the showers by 12Z with little to no potential for showers
to move into the forecast area through the tonight period. It will
be a warm and humid night with lows only dropping down to the upper
60s to mid 70s, with some higher spots down to the mid 60s.
Monday, the sfc low will track northeast across southern Ontario and
into southern Quebec through the day. Its trailing cold front will
track toward and cross the forecast area during the late morning and
through the afternoon. The pre-frontal trough associated with the
system looks like it will weaken and get taken over by the cold
front early in the day, just west of the forecast area. This is what
the higher resolution guidance is trending with and the reason why
they are also trending drier for the first half of the morning on
Monday. The front will track through the area in pieces with the sfc
portion moving into far WNY by the mid to late morning time and
track through the eastern portions of the forecast area through the
late afternoon. The rest of the front will lag behind by a few
hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front as the
warm and moist airmass remains in place, and as any remnant form of
the pre-frontal trough moves into the area and interacts with lake
breeze boundaries. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity
should remain just ahead of or along the cold front as it crosses
the area. With high PWat values of around 2.00", weak flow aloft and
near parallel flow with the front, heavy rain is expected within
some of the showers and thunderstorms with the potential for
training of thunderstorms. This will increase the potential for
areas of localized flooding in some areas, with the greatest
potential expected for areas of the western Southern Tier and the
western/northern Finger Lakes. As a result of the heavy rain
potential, there is a 'Marginal Risk' for excessive rainfall on
Monday for the entire area, but the best potential is expected for
areas mentioned above. There is also a 'Marginal Risk' for severe
thunderstorms on Monday across the entire area. While CAPE values
look favorable for thunderstorms (1,000+ J/kg), shear looks
generally weak, but a few storms may produce some gusty winds. DCAPE
values of around 500-750 J/kg would support this potential for some
gusty winds that will be possible. Temperatures on Monday will be a
little cooler than today with highs in the mid 80s for far western
NY and the North Country, with areas of the western and northern
Finger Lakes remaining a bit warmer in the upper 80s to low 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
General broad troughing will set up across the Great Lakes Monday
night and last through much of the week. Heading into Monday night,
a cold front will be in the midst of crossing the eastern portions
of the forecast area with a weak shortwave trough crossing overhead
of the lower Great Lakes nudging it along. As such, this will result
in the last few convective showers to exit the area early in the
evening, before cooler and drier air arrives late in the night.
While the general troughing pattern remains overhead Tuesday and
Tuesday night, zonal flow with in the base of the broad trough will
support a bubble of surface high pressure to ridge into the region
from the Ontario Province. With high pressure overhead, mainly dry
weather will persist, though a few spotty showers will be possible
along the far east/southeastern portions along the periphery of the
surface high. Meanwhile, temperatures will be more seasonable
Tuesday with highs int he upper 70s to low 80s.
The next more defined shortwave trough will travel through the base
of the longwave trough Wednesday and Wednesday night, sliding across
central Great Lakes. While high pressure will most likely dominate
across the lower Great Lakes Wednesday, a surface low passing east
along a stationary front across the Ohio Valley will introduce a
slight chance for a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon across the western Southern Tier before spreading
northward across the remainder of the area Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The later half of the week, will feature a longwave trough axis
overhead of the central Great Lakes to traverse east into New
England by this weekend. Overall this will continue to support the
chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Friday. Then
as the next trough enters the northern Great Lakes Saturday, the
ridge axis of a skinny ridge will slide east across the lower Great
Lakes this weekend. Guidance continues to struggle with the timing
of these features for the weekend and therefore the current forecast
resembles the National Blend, keeping a chance for rain showers and
afternoon thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
Otherwise with the troughing pattern overhead, temperatures will be
near to slightly above average early to mid July.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR through tonight. Some afternoon fair weather clouds
across the area, but limited to FEW/SCT at around 5kft. A LLJ over
the Niagara Frontier and the North Country is causing some gusts to
around 25 kts this afternoon. Both wind and cloud will
weaken/dissipate this evening.
Monday, mainly VFR to start the day, but flight conditions will
deteriorate through the day. First with showers and thunderstorms
ahead of and along a cold front that will cause heavy rain at times.
The best chance for heavy rain is expected mainly for the inland
areas south of Lake Ontario, but at least a heavy downpour for any
location in the forecast area is possible. Flight cats in heavier
downpours down to MVFR expected and even IFR possible at times,
mostly for VSBY, but lower CIGs also possible. CIGs will then lower
to lower end MVFR and some IFR by the late afternoon as the cold
front crosses the area in pieces.
Outlook...
Monday night...Mainly MVFR to IFR with decreasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
restrictions possible.
Friday...early restrictions should improve to VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A tightening pressure gradient over the lakes today between high
pressure in the western Atlantic and a cold front to the northwest
has led to breezy southwest winds in some areas approaching SCA
levels. Confidence is low to moderate as the setup looks very
marginal, though the two main areas of concern are the St. Lawrence
and Upper Niagara rivers, as the relatively cool lakes should
inhibit mixing of stronger winds across the open waters. Winds will
also be breezy over the southwestern end of Lake Ontario, though the
offshore direction should preclude the need for SCA headlines. While
strong winds aloft will remain overhead tonight, limited mixing
should allow sfc winds to diminish this evening.
Otherwise, a few thunderstorms will also be possible across or just
north of the St. Lawrence River through the day today. More
widespread chances for tstorms across the waters will arrive Monday,
before the cold front finally moves through the region later Monday.
Post-frontal winds will become northwesterly into early Tuesday,
though sub-SCA conditions are expected through the rest of the week.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>006-011-
013-014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
SLZ022.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PP
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...PP
Office: BGM
FXUS61 KBGM 062124
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
524 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern returns early this week as a hot
and humid airmass remains over the region. There will be a
chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday with
heavy downpours that could produce localized flash flooding.
Drier weather arrives on Wednesday as high pressure builds back
into the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
240 PM Update
Warm and muggy conditions are expected overnight with lows
dipping only to the mid-60s to lower 70s. Tomorrow should
start off dry, but clouds increase and eventually showers and
thunderstorms become likely by the afternoon and evening hours
as a cold front drops down from Canada.
Warm, tropical moisture will be pushing north into the area and
PWATs will likely exceed 2 inches by tomorrow afternoon.
Forecast soundings are showing long skinny CAPE profiles with
2000 J/kg and a warm cloud depth approaching 15K feet. Efficient
warm rain processes are looking likely in any showers and
storms tomorrow and rainfall rates may exceed 2"/hour. Also,
Corfidi vectors around 10-15 knots indicate that some back
building/training thunderstorms will be possible. These storms
can produce locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding.
At this time, the most favorable area for thunderstorms with
torrential downpours will be across the northwestern half of our
CWA...in Finger Lakes Region and into Syracuse as the cold
front slowly sags southeastward tomorrow afternoon.
Also, the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal could enhance the
rain and t'storm potential as that slow moving front sinks SE
across the area late in the day. WPC has our area in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall. At this time, confidence is not
high enough in anyone location to warrant a flood watch, but this
will certainly be something to watch closely. SPC also has a
marginal risk for isolated severe storms with damaging winds,
across the NW half of the CWA Monday afternoon & evening.
Soundings show 1500 to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE, 25 kts of 0-6km
shear and over 800 J/kg of DCAPE...so we will need to watch for
any better organized storms that may produce strong, gusty to
isolated damaging winds as well.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into tomorrow
night, but any severe thunderstorm potential will wane after
sunset.
Finally, temperatures tomorrow could top out in the 90s in some
urban areas. Depending on the timing of the showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon, heat index values could exceed
95F in urban areas. However, decided to hold off on another heat
advisory for now, due to the uncertainty of timing for those
showers and storms tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Forecast...
The short term will remain active with a broad trough set up
over the Great Lakes region with SW flow aloft. Tuesday,
precipitable water values remain over 1.5 with ensemble means of
1.75 to 2.0 inches which is close to 3 standard deviations
above climatology. Models indicate that there will be a stalled
frontal boundary in the region but its placement is still
uncertain. Storms will mostly be concentrated along that front
through most of the day with a concern for localized flash
flooding with high rainfall rates. Most models have trended
towards the front making it through most of the region and
stalling more in NEPA into Southern New England so that is the
main area of concern.
The front looks to move south of the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday with surface high pressure building in. While
Wednesday starts off dry, a warm front tries to lift north with
increasing chances if rain showers and thunderstorms moving in
from the south through the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
250 PM Forecast...
The long term remains active with SW flow continuing. Thursday
has a more potent shortwave moving through with ensemble mean
shear still around 20 to 25 knots with CAPE >500 J/kg though
deterministic models are more aggressive with shear with the 500
mb jet passing overhead. Headed into the weekend, the broad
long wave trough remains over the central US keeping the
Northeast under SW flow and frequent short wave trough passage.
Chances of precipitation remain high each afternoon Friday
through Sunday with plenty of moisture and instability for
through passages to take advantage of.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period at most taf sites. A marine cloud
layer looks to develop over the Poconos and expand northwestward
early Monday morning. At the very least, MVFR CIGs will move into
AVP early Monday morning and could drop below 1K feet for a
brief period. This MVFR cloud layer gets close to BGM around or
just after daybreak, but climatology points to this likely
ending up just east of BGM before starting to erode Monday
morning.
Outlook...
Monday afternoon...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible, with associated restrictions, especially at SYR.
Tuesday through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR with a chance for
showers or a thunderstorm.
Thursday... Restrictions possible with some showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ015>018-023-
025-036-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG/JTC
AVIATION...MPK
