ny discuss
Office: ALY
FXUS61 KALY 060205
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1005 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Clear and cool weather is expected for tonight with another
partly to mostly sunny sky and pleasant temperatures on Sunday.
Some showers are expected Sunday night into Monday before cooler
weather moves into the region during the upcoming week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1005 PM EDT, high pressure will continue to
build across the region tonight under a clear to mostly clear
sky. With light to calm winds, ideal radiational cooling
conditions are occurring with temperatures already falling into
the 40s to lower 50s with some upper 30s across the Adirondacks.
Have lowered low temperatures a couple of degrees tonight with
values now ranging from the mid-30s to lower 40s. Patchy fog may
still develop in the typical locations overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper system along the U.S./Canada border tracks through and
just north of the Great Lakes Sunday night, forming an upper cut
off low in SE Canada that is slow to track east. Mean upper
troughing holds over our region through much of the week as the
upper cut off is slow to exit.
Warm advection Sunday ahead of the upper system, with sunshine
much of the day, but some initial cloudiness begins to spread
into our area Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday in the upper 60s to
lower 70s and cooler in higher terrain.
Upper energy, some low level jet energy, boundary layer wind
shift and leading edge of cold advection will provide forcing
and moisture will support showers and a possible isolated
thunderstorms late Sunday night into early Monday morning. The
cold front tracks through Monday morning and gradual clearing
takes place through the day. There could be some gusty winds as
cold advection increases through the afternoon. Before the deep
cold advection arrives, highs Monday in the mid 60s to near 70
and cooler in higher elevations.
Cooling and drier weather Monday night into Tuesday. There may
be some frost issues by daybreak Tuesday in some rural areas but
not a high confidence yet. Then, sunny Tuesday with some
possible lake effect cloudiness into the western and central
Mohawk valley and southern Adirondacks. Highs Tuesday around 60
to mid 60s, with 50s higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
More frost and possible freeze potential in some areas by
Wednesday morning. Some scattered showers possible Wednesday
into the southern Adirondacks and western and central Mohawk
Valley as an upper impulse and reinforcing cold front track
through our region. Highs Wednesday in the upper 50s to lower
60s with around 50 to lower 50s higher terrain.
Otherwise, dry and mainly sunny weather Thursday through
Saturday with slow moderation to temperatures. Highs Thursday
in the upper 50s to lower 60s and around 50 higher terrain.
Highs Friday around 60 to mid 60s and cooler in higher
elevations. Highs Saturday in the mid 60s to lower 70s and
cooler in higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z/Mon...VFR conditions are expected for most of the
upcoming TAF period with the exception of any fog development
tonight. Higher confidence for fog is at the climatologically
favored sites of KGFL/KPSF where some LIFR/IFR periods will be
possible from 05z-13z/Sun. There is lower confidence for fog at
KALB/KPOU so kept the TAF VFR at this time.
Calm wind tonight will become southerly at 5-10 kt on Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Rathbun
Office: OKX
FXUS61 KOKX 060009
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
809 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the area into Sunday morning, then
gives way to a frontal system approaching from the west. The
associated warm front lifts through the area Sunday night,
followed by the cold frontal passage on Monday. A series of
weak cold fronts moves through the area midweek as an upper
level disturbance slides through the northeast U.S. Meanwhile a
large Canadian high pressure system then builds in west of the
area midweek and south of the area late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure and upper ridge will remain over the region
through Sunday. Meanwhile, an upper level closed low, and associated
trough will move through southern Canada and the Northern Plain
states tonight, and move into the Great Lakes region on Sunday. Lows
tonight will fall into the 40s and 50s. Sunday, highs will be in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure over the area slides east Sunday night. This will
allow a frontal system to impact the region late Sunday night into
Monday. First, a warm front will lift north across the region Sunday
night, then a cold front will follow on Monday.
Expect POPs to gradually increase Sunday night with showers becoming
likely after midnight and continuing into Monday morning. With
some CAPE and instability, along with the forcing, isolated
thunder cannot be ruled out. With the warm air moving in, Sunday
night's lows will be in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
The upper closed low opens Monday as the upper trough become
negatively tilted, slowing the eastward progression of the
associated cold front. Showers and isolated thunder will continue
much of the day before the cold front moves east by Monday evening.
Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Good model agreement on Hudson Bay upper low on Monday, gradually
sliding east into northern New England mid next week, before
gradually lifting NE Friday into next weekend. Model spread increase
for late week on how quickly the upper trough lifts.
Deep NW flow continues to bring in a fall airmass through mid-week
(coolest of the early fall season so far) as high pressure gradually
builds to the west of the region, and a series of reinforcing cold
fronts move through the area Tue Night and Wed Night, bringing heart
of cool airmass Wed into Thu. Mainly dry conditions during this
period, but as southern periphery of upper low moves overhead and a
couple of embedded shortwaves rotate through sct-bkn instability cu
likely, and even isolated instability shra/sprinkle activity across
the interior Wed and Thu aft/eve.
Highs Tue are likely to run slightly to a few degrees below
seasonable, and then several degrees below seasonable Wed/Thu (Upper
50s to 60 F interior, lower 60s to 65F city/coast) as heart of cool
airmass descends on the region. Bias corrected NBM deterministic
continues to run close to NBM 75-95th percentile of raw ensemble
during this period (highest for the coast), so potential that the
deterministic could be running a bit high considering this regime
change and persistent caa. Have blended NBM deterministic and NBM
50th based on above, with potential for diurnal temps to trend
down a few degrees from current forecast.
Mixed low-levels should keep overnight lows from bottoming out
thru much of the time period, but far outlying areas would be
several degrees cooler than forecast Mon Night thru Thu Night if
able to decouple, bringing a low potential for frost,
particularly Wed and Thu Night. MOS guidance will provide a
better picture within a 72 hr window on this threat.
NBM spread increases for Friday into the weekend based on how quickly
upper trough lifts ne, but overall a moderating trend signaled for
Fri into the weekend as upper low (cold core) likely lifts.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds into the area through Sunday morning, then
gives way to an approaching frontal system. The associated warm
front lifts through the area Sunday night, followed by the cold
frontal passage on Monday.
Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR in showers after 06Z Monday.
N/NE winds less than 10 kt overnight will veer around to the
S/SE on Sunday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Night through Monday: MVFR likely in showers late Sunday
night into Monday. Becoming VFR Monday afternoon with showers
ending from west to east. Chance of NW G15-20kt Monday
afternoon.
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. W-NW G15-20kt, mainly late morning
into the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions remain across the forecast waters through
Sunday. Ocean seas are expected to build to SCA levels Sunday
night as long period swells from Hurricane Kirk (see NHC for
forecast details) move into the waters. Long period swells from
Hurricane Kirk peak at 5 to 6 feet Monday, gradually subsiding
below SCA late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Generally sub-SCA NW gusts through midweek, but low potential for
brief nocturnal marginal SCA gusts over the ocean in wake of
reinforcing cold fronts Mon Night thru Thu Night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected throughout the forecast
period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 8 AM EDT
Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV/DW
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV
Office: BUF
FXUS61 KBUF 060219
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1019 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Clear starlit skies will be in place tonight...as high pressure will
exit to our east. While an approaching cold front will promote late
summer warmth on Sunday...it will also generate some late day
showers and strong thunderstorms. Notably cooler weather will follow
for the bulk of the upcoming week...as daytime highs will only be in
the 50s and 60s. The very cool weather will support periodic early
season lake effect rain showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Late Sunday..
High pressure drifting overhead this evening with maintain clear
skies. The high will shift east of the region late tonight with
the pressure gradient tightening ahead of a cold front. Increasing
southerly component winds late tonight should limit fog potential,
although in some sheltered valley fog may still occur. Low
temperatures in the 40s will likely occur by the second half of
the night, before leveling out or even rising a few degrees by
daybreak.
Deepening trough arrives into the eastern Great Lakes Sunday with
western New York emerging into the warm sector. Robust warm air
advection develops within the warm sector as a 40 to 45 knot low level
jet focuses on the region, sending 850 mb temperatures to 14-15C. This
will send temperatures into the lower to mid 70s for most areas, with
some upper 70s possible across western New York.
A strong cold front will arrive by late afternoon with a narrow
corridor of dewpoints reaching into the 60s pooling ahead of the front.
Cooling aloft along with steepening mid-level lapse rates will overlap
modest boundary layer moisture to support an area of moderate
instability along and just ahead of the cold front. The expectation is
that a band of convection will develop along and just ahead of the cold
front entering western New york around 4 PM. Strong wind fields aloft
with nearly 50 knots of deep layer shear will likely yield a narrow
band of organized convection. Damaging wind gusts will likely be the
PRIMARY threat associated with the strong wind fields aloft. Bufkit
profiles showing sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and SRH
signals to suggest the potenial for supercell development with an
isolated tornado possible, especially across southwest New York. SPC
has much of the area in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms with a
Slight Risk area highlighted for southwest New York.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A sharp cold front will begin to cross Western NY early Sunday
evening, with a line of showers working from west to east through
the region. While there 'likely' will be some measure of
thunderstorm activity, the potential for stronger storms will
decrease with the loss of daytime heating. The greatest threat for
stronger storms will initially be found across Western NY, then
decrease the further east you go Sunday evening. Its worth
noting that CAMS show 0-6km shear values up to 35 knots and
instability of 850-1000 j/kg early on. With the passage of the
cold front we should see shower activity quickly diminish in
coverage as drier air works in across the Lower Lakes Sunday
night. It will also turn much cooler as 850H fall to +1C to +2C
by Monday morning. Some brief clearing may take place behind the
front, but given the cool airmass spilling into the region
clouds will 'likely' redevelop southeast of the lakes.
Otherwise...lows Sunday night will be found in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.
Cool WNW cyclonic flow will continue to produce plenty of cloud cover
Monday along with some measure of shower activity. Highs on Monday
will be as much as 15F-20F degrees cooler than Sunday with 50s to
low 60s across the region. Monday night lows will be found in
the upper 30s to mid 40s. Given that there will be some wind
flow...frost more than 'likely' will not be much of an issue. Even
so...it would be wise to take precautions or atleast get prepared
for frost by Tuesday night.
It definitely will feel like fall has arrived Tuesday across the
forecast area. Highs on Tuesday will be found generally in the 50s,
maybe a few readings around 60F. With the trough still hanging
around we still can't completely eliminate the potential for a
passing shower. Mainly low end chances 15%-40% with most locales
seeing mainly dry weather.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An amplified pattern this week across North America, with a stout
upper level ridge slowly pushing a cool, downstream trough from
southern Canada/Great Lakes region out to sea.
Under this trough a mix of daytime instability showers and lake
effect showers will be common Wednesday. Temperatures around 0C at
850 hPa will support the lake effect precipitation, and also keep
much of the region in the 50s for daytime highs through Thursday.
As this trough and its associated moisture exits, clearing skies
will allow for chilly temperatures for both Thursday and Friday
mornings with increasing frost potential depending upon cloud
clearing.
Surface high pressure will slide towards our region next Saturday,
though the ECMWF and its ensembles maintain more of a zonal flow
aloft with some cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions with light winds will remain in place through
early Sunday morning.
While VFR weather will persist through early Sunday afternoon...
winds will significantly freshen ahead of an approaching strong
cold front. Southerly winds could gust to 30 knots. By mid to
late afternoon...a line of showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms will start to push across the western counties of
the state. This convection could be accompanied by short periods
of MVFR conditions.
Outlook...
Sunday night...VFR to MVFR with early evening showers and
thunderstorms giving way to just scattered nuisance showers
late.
Monday through Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers...
especially east/southeast of the lakes.
Thursday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure moving through the lower Great Lakes will maintain
quiet weather on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through tonight.
A warm front followed by a much stronger cold front will move
through the region Sunday and Sunday evening respectively. South
winds will increase 15-20 knots behind the initial warm front,
directing much of the higher wave action offshore. The cold front
will then shift winds to the west-northwest by Sunday night, likely
resulting in a period of SCA conditions into Monday for Lake Erie,
and Monday night for Lake Ontario.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...PP/TMA
Office: BGM
FXUS61 KBGM 060159
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
959 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet and cool weather is expected overnight under high pressure.
Mostly sunny and mild weather prevails for most of the day on Sunday
before a cold front sweeps through Sunday evening and Sunday night.
This front will bring periods of rain and a slight chance for
thunderstorms. Turning much cooler next week with scattered lake
effect clouds and rain showers around; mainly for Central NY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
945 PM Update...
With clear skies overhead, there's pretty good radiational
cooling already occurring and temperatures were running lower
that currently projected over much of the area. As a result,
blended in the NBM 10th percentile to lower hourlies and drop
overnight lows by 1-3 degrees. Gave winds a boost as well for
tomorrow afternoon and evening ahead of the approaching front,
especially over the higher terrain south of the NYS Thruway back
through the Finger Lakes and into Steuben County.
635 PM Update...
A couple of minor adjustments made at this time. Blending in
current obs, dew points were running lower than we had projected
by several degrees, so blended in the NBM 10th percentile to
lower them a bit through the remainder of the evening. Looking
ahead to the showers and embedded thunderstorms late tomorrow
into tomorrow evening, the CAMS are a little slower with the
arrival of precipitation into the Finger Lakes region, but they
have tended to be a bit too slow as of late. This is something
to monitor going forward.
245 PM Update...
Skies will clear out this evening and through the overnight as a
1023mb surface high builds in from the north. Winds will become
light and variable overnight with ideal radiational cooling conditions
expected. Lows dip down into upper 30s to mid-40s over the region;
and while we cannot rule out patchy frost in the coldest rural
valley locations, it was not a high enough probability to issue
any frost advisories at this time. Fog will also be likely in
the typical river valley locations into the early morning hours
on Sunday.
During the day on Sunday the next frontal system begins to approach
from the west with an increasingly warm southerly flow out ahead of
it. After the early morning fog dissipates it looks to be mainly
sunny through most of the day time hours. South winds increase
between 8-15 mph with a few gusts around 20 mph...this will boos
temperatures up into the upper 60s to mid-70s for highs.
The weather turns more unsettled Sunday evening into Sunday night as
a rather potent cold front barrels through. Expect a line of showers
and thunderstorms to move west to east over the forecast area;
starting between 6-8 PM in the west, I-81 corridor during the late
evening and then into the Mohawk Valley/Catskills and Poconos
overnight. Instability will be quite limited, but the shear will be
45-55 kts in the 0-6km layer, with strong forcing along the front.
This may allow some erratic and gusty winds to mix down to the
surface with the showers and storms during the evening hours...mainly
west of an Auburn--Ithaca--Elmira line. Therefore, SPC does have
this portion of the CWA under a Marginal Risk for severe weather
and isolated damaging winds. After midnight the t'storms will
end and it transitions to lingering showers as winds turn northwesterly
and overnight lows dip down into the upper 40s and 50s. Rainfall
amounts are forecast to be between a quarter to half an inch
for most locations...locally high amounts cannot be ruled out.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A trough digging into the Northeast will sweep a cold front
across Central NY and NE PA Sunday night, bringing rain showers,
storms, and slightly below normal average temperatures. Behind
this front heading into Monday, northwesterly flow will help to
develop light lake effect rain showers for northern portions of
Central NY Monday evening through Wednesday evening. High
temperatures will likely stay in the 50s through the short term
period, with some valley locations possibly hitting 60.
Overnight temperatures will dip into the mid 40s overnight
Monday, and decrease into the mid to low 30s overnight
Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure moves into the area Thursday, with dry and
conditions expected for the rest of the forecast period.
Temperatures will increase from the high 50s/low 60s Thursday
into the high 60s/low 70s on Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure over the region drifts to the east overnight and
Sunday. VFR is expected through the period with the exception of
a valley fog risk at KELM.
KELM dense fog forecast is usually a slam dunk this time of
year, however, the latest forecast temperature does not appear
to go below the crossover rule. The model guidance also has some
spread allowing for uncertainty, with the HREF offering only
minimal probabilities for fog below 1/2SM. The historical fog
checklist showed nights of dense fog, but the antecedent
conditions were wetter than the past several days and the one
night with no fog still had a fair amount of moisture prior to
the event.
Thus, I am going to pull back slightly from the previous
forecast which had several hours of restrictions below airport
minimums. At this time, I'm not confident to pull fog out
completely given a favorable climatology, so will indicate
several hours of IFR with just a couple hours of occasional
minimum conditions from 11-13Z.
Light winds tonight becoming SE then SW 8-16 KTS.
.Outlook...
Sunday evening through Monday...Another frontal system moves in
more showers and possible restrictions. Slight chance for a
thunderstorm as well. A few wrap-around showers and lower
clouds may persist across north-central NY terminals Monday.
Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Will have to watch for
some lake effect rain showers nearby at SYR and RME. There is a
chance for brief restrictions with these, especially Tuesday and
Wednesday with the cooler NW flow.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...DK/MJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JAB/MJM
