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Office: ALY
FXUS61 KALY 191129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
729 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to allow for dry weather today with
temperatures a little warmer compared to yesterday. Warm and
humid weather will return for tomorrow ahead of a cold front.
Some scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be
strong are expected to accompany the frontal passage. Cooler,
drier and less humid weather will return for early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

-Marginal to Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms on Sunday
 ahead of a cold front. A line of thunderstorms is expected
 Sunday late morning through the afternoon hours ahead of the
 front with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.

Discussion:

As of 206 AM EDT...Surface high pressure (around 1021 mb) is
centered over central and eastern Upstate New York early this
morning. IR satellite imagery shows completely clear skies and
surface observations is showing calm winds. This has resulted
good radiational cooling any most areas with start out the day
in the lower to middle 50s (some upper 40s across the highest
terrain). This is one of the cooler morning so far for the month
of July. Some patchy fog could develop in a few spots, but the
short duration of the overnight hours, dry air mass in place and
lack of recent rainfall for many spots should prevent this from
occurring on a widespread basis.

Through the day today, it will continue to be dry as high
pressure slides eastward. Winds will gradually become southerly
by the afternoon hours thanks to the return flow and highs temps
will be a few degrees warmer compared to Friday. While high
terrain areas may stay in the 70s, most valleys will reach the
lower to middle 80s. Skies will be fairly sunny, although some
passing clouds are possible by afternoon. Although dew points
will start out fairly low, they may return into the 60s by late
today thanks to the developing southerly flow.

Surface warm front will be lifting northward across the area
overnight. A few showers are possible across southeastern areas
by the late night hours. In addition, a few showers or even a
rumble of thunder is possible across far northern areas towards
daybreak as well, as the main frontal system starts approaching
from the west. Otherwise, it will be partly to mostly cloudy
tonight with lows in the 60s and humidity on the increase.

Our region will be in a warm sector ahead of an approaching cold
front for Sunday. Models have backed the timing of this boundary
slightly, so it now looks to mainly cross during the afternoon
hours. Ahead of the front, model soundings suggest a good amount
of instability, with SBCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range,
which will be aided by surface dewpoints in the lower 70s.
Although mid level lapse rates may be rather marginal and some
dry air aloft could limit convection, there should be a decent
overlap of instability and shear, as model soundings suggest 0-6
km bulk shear reaching 30-40 kts. CAMs shows a broken line of
thunderstorms ahead of the front passing from west to east from
the late morning through the late afternoon hours. With steep
low level lapse rates and plenty of DCAPE, damaging wind gusts
will be a threat, especially if any linear features develop as
shown in the both the 3km HRRR and NAMNest. SPC has added a
slight risk for southeastern areas, with a marginal in place for
the rest of the area and this makes sense considering the
forecast soundings and hodographs. It should be fairly warm and
muggy ahead of the front with valley highs into the 80s.

Once the front crosses, cooler and less humid air will pour into
the region for Sunday night, with convection ending from west
to east by evening. Dewpoints will be quickly falling thanks to
the drier westerly flow with lows down into the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The start of the long term period looks very quiet, as high
pressure will keep it dry for Monday into at least Tuesday.
Daytime temps will be comfortable in the 70s with low dewpoints.
Good radiational cooling may allow for a cool night on Monday
night with lows down into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Some moderation will start to occur for Wednesday into Friday,
as surface high pressure passing offshore will allow for the low
level flow to return out of the south and temps aloft and
heights start to build. There could be a return to some hot and
humid weather for the late week, with NBM suggesting daytime
highs back into the upper 80s to low 90s for many valley and
urban areas by Thursday into Friday. There could be a need for
some heat-related headlines if this guidance continues to hold.

Next chance for convection may also return by Thursday into
Friday, as approaching upper level disturbance could allow for
some showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. For now, POPs are limited to Slight Chance to
Chance range, but will need to monitor the potential for strong
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at area TAF sites with
south/southwest winds under 10 knots. MVFR ceilings are
forecast to develop after 04Z as a warm front lifts through the
region. While there will be sufficient instability for
convection early Sunday morning, the likelihood of
showers/thunderstorms was too low to include in the TAFs at this
time.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Humphrey



Office: OKX FXUS61 KOKX 191600 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1200 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues to shift offshore this afternoon into Sunday morning. A warm front then looks to pass through sometime late tonight into Sunday morning. A cold front will follow Sunday evening. High pressure then dominates through Wednesday. A cold front slowly approaches late Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure centered just north of the area will continue to move offshore into this afternoon. A frontal boundary currently draped over the Delmarva starts to gradually return north as a warm front into this evening. Aloft, a mostly zonal flow transitions to some lowering heights ahead of a shortwave. Temperatures remain on track and look to settle into the lower to middle 80s for daytime maxes. With high pressure shifting offshore, a return flow sets up and brings a steady increase in moisture to the area ahead of the warm front, therefore dew point readings rise, especially further south across the area late this afternoon into this evening. With the increasing moisture and lift ahead of the approaching shortwave some showers are possible starting this afternoon, but mainly for southwestern portions of the area. Confidence is not too high in this and PoPs are a touch lower than the NBM for the afternoon, mainly due to the given proximity of the high and latest CAM iterations. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The aforementioned warm front looks to move through sometime tonight into early Sunday morning. Confidence in showers and thunderstorms increases during this period, especially for the eastern half of the area. Given the potential for pwats around 2 inches, any activity should be able to produce heavy downpours. See Hydrology section below. It is worth noting that in latest guidance there is some hints that the warm front does not push all the way through the area and may skirt by the southern half briefly before pushing east/northeast. This could have potential impacts on moisture and convective activity. There may then be a dry period the rest of Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Before the severe thunderstorm threat, hot and humid conditions are expected with highs now forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. The NBM temperatures have trended up a bit and this combination is giving more widespread 95 to 99 heat index values and a couple areas right around 100. Given this is only one day of these conditions, no Heat Advisory is expected at this time, however, if temperatures and humidity trend up again, an Advisory can not be completely ruled out if the one day criteria of widespread 100 heat index is reached. Attention then turns to potential severe thunderstorm activity with an approaching cold front. Ahead of the front, the area looks to be able to destabilize to 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The cold front appears decently strong for this time of year with a sharp moisture gradient. 0-6km bulk shear will also be about 30 to 35 kts. This combination could result in scattered severe thunderstorms Sunday evening. The SPC has introduced a slight risk for our area. The main concern is wind, given no significant directional shear through the layer. Large hail can also not be completely ruled out, especially in any discrete cells that form before an eventual potential cluster/broken line forms. Forecast storm motion looks somewhat perpendicular to the front which may allow the earlier activity to be more discrete, so the hail threat favors more north and west of NYC. High pressure builds in behind the cold front Sunday night and leads to quiet conditions through Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ***KEY POINT*** * Heat and humidity return for the end of next week. An extended period of quiet weather is expected during the long term forecast as an upper ridge building into Thursday, and then weakening as another shortwave trough moves into eastern Canada and the northeast late Thursday into Friday. At the surface high pressure dominates into Thursday. A weak surface trough develops inland Wednesday afternoon with a slight chance of precipitation. A stronger surface trough develops for late Thursday into Thursday night with high pressure weakening and shifting south and east. And there will be higher, and more widespread, chances for precipitation. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals through Tuesday night, then the heat will build with temperatures above normal Wednesday into the end of the week. Humidity levels will also be increasing beginning Wednesday as a return flow setup up later Wednesday with high pressure moving east of the area. For Thursday and Friday with the combination of heat, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s, and humidity, with dew points in the lower 70s, there is the potential for a heat advisory for Thursday and Friday with a 2 day period of heat indices reaching 95 to 103 across much of the area. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure moves offshore this afternoon, giving way to a warm front approaching from the south this evening. The warm front is forecast to pass over Long Island through late tonight into Sunday morning. A cold front approaches Sun afternoon, crossing Sun evening. VFR through evening push, although a brief shower is possible this afternoon. Increasing likelihood of MVFR cigs for most terminals overnight (aft 03z). Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight into Sun am push, highest confidence is for the coastal terminals east of NYC/Nj metro. Light N/NE or variable winds become southerly at 5-10kt this afternoon into evening, then light SW or variable late tonight into Sun AM push. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Spotty showers possible for Sat aft/eve push. Low and sparse coverage of tsra after 03z through Sun AM push. MVFR conds likely after 03z thru Sun AM push. Timing of MVFR and TSRA may be off by 1-2 hours and need to refined. S winds to 15 kt likely for KJFK, possible for KLGA, btwn 20z and 24z with coastal jet this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Sunday: MVFR AM, improving to VFR late morning. MVFR or lower conds and W/NW winds gust in excess of 30kt in any showers/thunderstorms along and ahead of an approaching cold during the late afternoon/early evening hours. SW winds 10g15kt Sun aft/evening. Sunday night through Wednesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds and waves look to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through next week with a weak pressure gradient in place. However, there is potential for severe thunderstorms Sunday evening. Locally stronger wind gusts and higher waves are possible in any thunderstorm. && .HYDROLOGY... Widespread hydrologic impacts are not anticipated through this weekend. However, with potential precipitable waters values around 2 inches, any thunderstorms could produce brief/locally heavy rain rainfall. Higher overall chances of thunderstorms would be Sunday afternoon, but storms would be moving quickly enough to mitigate a flash flooding threat. There are no hydrologic impacts expected from Sunday night through next week with dry weather much of the time. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The rip current risk for Saturday and Sunday is low at all the ocean beaches with 2-ft southerly wind waves at 4 to 6-sec period and S winds mostly 10 kt or less. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET/JT NEAR TERM...JE/JT SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...DW MARINE...NV HYDROLOGY...MET/JT TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Office: BUF FXUS61 KBUF 191023 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 623 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will exit across New England and out to sea today... while still providing our area with dry and seasonably warm weather. A wavy cold front will then bring another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms tonight and Sunday morning...before another area of high pressure builds across our region and provides us with dry weather for Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface high pressure will slide across New England and out to sea today...while broad...low-amplitude troughing and a corresponding weak/wavy surface cold front make their way across the Upper Great Lakes. This next system will remain too far to our west to bring much more than a very modest increase in mid and high clouds to our area during the afternoon... with fair dry weather continuing to prevail. With some warming of our airmass developing around the backside of the departing ridge... daytime highs will climb back into the lower to mid 80s in most places...with a few spots in the Genesee Valley reaching the upper 80s. Dewpoints will also climb back to the lower half of the 60s...thereby lending a somewhat more humid feel to our warming airmass. Tonight the low-amplitude trough will continue to gradually dig and extend eastward across our region as an embedded shortwave slides through its southern periphery...while at the surface the associated wavy cold front looks to make it to about Lakes Erie and Ontario by the start of Sunday morning. This system will bring a continued increase in synoptic moisture as it approaches...with precipitable water values climbing to between 1.5 and 2 inches. Coupled with lift provided first by the passage of the aforementioned shortwave and then the approach of the surface cold front...this will generally bring an increasing potential for showers and some scattered thunderstorms as we push through the late evening and overnight hours...which is reflected in the forecast by PoPs increasing into the likely range. This being said...the short term guidance suite continues to exhibit differences in just how well the initial convection attendant to the lead shortwave will hold together during the late evening and early overnight hours...with some packages looking rather anemic in this respect given the potential for the warm waters of Lakes Erie and Ontario to provide sustenance. For now have stuck pretty close to blended guidance for PoPs...with the better pcpn chances accompanying the approach of the wavy cold front later on in the night. At this juncture...the potential for strong to severe storms appears to be lessening given the unfavorable later-night timing to the convection...which will help to keep instability levels modest at best across our area. This being said...there is certainly enough shear in place to result in a non-zero risk of a stronger storm or two with isolated damaging wind gusts...with this especially the case across portions of far WNY closest to Lakes Erie and Ontario where the warm lake waters could help to give the convection a boost. Isolated locally heavy rainfall also cannot be completely ruled out given the increased atmospheric moisture content...though this would likely require training of heavier convective cells given the relatively quick flow aloft. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A cold front directly over the region to start the period Sunday will trek southeast and move out of the forecast area by the late morning hours. Lingering scattered showers and/or thunderstorms along this front will move further inland from the lakes and clear out in tandem as a large expanse of Canadian-sourced high pressure builds back in from the northwest. Relatively cooler, quieter, and less humid weather should then prevail through the rest of the period with valley fog possible Sunday night and Monday night. Temperatures Monday and Monday night in particular will average some 5-10 degrees below normal for mid to late July. Could see sfc temperatures Monday night being several degrees cooler than currently forecast with 850H temps on either side of +8C and good radiational cooling in place, potentially leading to low/mid 40s across parts of the interior. In addition...This cool airmass flowing over the very warm lake waters and limited low level moisture could potentially lead to more lake effect clouds than forecast or even some isolated showers/sprinkles over the Finger Lakes. Temps (and to a lesser extent dewpoints) recover a several degrees Tuesday and Tuesday night as the high begins to move east of the area, though remaining dry. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The area of high pressure that will bring cooler and drier weather earlier in the week will move into the western Atlantic Wednesday through Thursday as mid/upper level ridging dominates the southern CONUS. Deepening offshore anticyclonic flow will force a warm front through the region on Wednesday, opening the door to increasing heat and humidity through the end of the week. Heat indices Thursday and Friday could reach advisory levels, though confidence is low as spread among the NBM percentiles becomes quite large by this point, while its dewpoints look vastly overdone in some areas. In addition to the return of summer's warmth, shower and thunderstorm chances begin to ramp up again later Wednesday night through Thursday and remain elevated through Friday as the airmass becomes increasingly unstable and several shortwaves take aim at the region. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Any limited patchy valley fog will quickly dissipate this morning with renewed daytime heating/mixing...with widespread VFR conditions then prevailing through the balance of the day as high pressure remains in control of our weather while sliding off the New England coast. Tonight a wavy cold front will approach our region from the central Great Lakes...with this feature reaching Lakes Erie and Ontario by 12z Sunday. This will bring an increasing likelihood of showers and scattered thunderstorms with associated restrictions as we push through the night...while ceilings gradually lower to MVFR/localized IFR across the higher terrain and MVFR/low VFR across the lower elevations. Outlook... Sunday...IFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then improvement to VFR. Monday through Wednesday...VFR...with localized river valley fog/IFR possible each late night and early morning. && .MARINE... High pressure will keep quiet conditions in place across the Lower Great Lakes region today, with continued weak large-scale flow allowing local lake breezes to develop again this afternoon. The next chance for disturbed weather will then arrive tonight, when a wavy cold frontal boundary will make its way across the Lower Great Lakes, bringing a renewed threat for showers and scattered thunderstorms. The front is then forecast to slip south of Lakes Erie and Ontario later Sunday morning with Canadian high pressure then providing dry weather later Sunday through Tuesday. A brief period of elevated northerlies in the wake of the cold front will bring choppy conditions Sunday night...especially along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline where conditions may approach marginal low-end Small Craft Advisory criteria. Generally light to modest winds and minimal waves will then follow for Monday and Tuesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJR NEAR TERM...JJR SHORT TERM...PP LONG TERM...PP AVIATION...JJR MARINE...JM/JJR
Office: BGM FXUS61 KBGM 191626 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1226 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather conditions Saturday will be replaced by a brief period of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight and Sunday. A cool and dry air mass settles in Monday and Tuesday before the heat and humidity return later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main concerns in the near term are focused on the threat for a few pop up showers and weak storms, mainly over northeast PA this afternoon, and the next round of convection potentially rolling through tonight, but with a secondary (more likely) period of showers and storms Sunday afternoon. Large scale pattern across the Great Lakes and Northeast US will be defined by broad, weak cyclonic flow aloft today and tomorrow. However, in the low levels and at the surface a weak area of high pressure will drift eastward through the interior Northeast today and off the coast on Sunday. This feature combined with a narrow wedge of drier air should keep conditions dry for most of central NY today. There is a weak stationary front oriented west-to-east across the Mid Atlantic region this morning that may (15-25% chance) trigger some scattered showers or isolated weak thunderstorms over northeast PA and points south this afternoon. If anything does get going later today, the convection should be mostly disorganized and not impactful. Conditions are not ideal and confidence is low concerning convection today in ne PA. The forcing along the front to the south is generally weak and given the abundance of cloud cover to the south, where there is more deep layer moisture and more available instability this afternoon, any convection that does initiate should have a very difficult time becoming deep and mature. Model forecast soundings are also indicating the presence of an inversion around 10-15k ft that will likely limit the depth of growth. ML CAPE values generally less than 500 J/kg and shallow low and mid level lapse rates, along with less than 30 kt of shear will keep a lid on the threat for severe storms today. One feature we will be watching later today and tonight will be the evolution of a potential MCS coming out of the Midwest. The current area of convection in IL has an eastward track, but there is still uncertainty with respect to how it will move and interact with a short wave dropping in from Canada. At this time it appears that any lingering convection will be light and scattered in nature when it moves across NY/PA early Saturday morning. Will need to watch this. The main period of potentially strong to severe storms will be the late morning and afternoon time frame Sunday when the primary trough/cold front pushes through NW to SE. Much of this potential will depend on how much the early morning convection lingers or keeps the boundary layer too well-mixed and doesn't allow the instability to build enough for deep convection to result later in the day. This appears to be a very conditional environment setting up. The greatest threat area appears to be east and south of Binghamton, NY...which also aligns where SPC has the Slight Risk for Sunday. The passage of the front is expected to be between 4-8 PM from just east/south of the Finger Lakes when the convection starts to develop through the Catskills and Poconos by the evening. The main threat appears to be damaging wind gusts, but some hail can't be ruled out. The threat for heavy rain and flash flooding appears to be low (5% or less) given the very progressive movement of the storms along the front, and the lack of deep moisture (PW around 1.5 inches). && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A period of relatively quiet weather will set up in short term, with the exception of Sunday night when a narrow ribbon of moisture will drop south from Ontario and bring with it some cooler air that will interact with the warm waters of the lake to produce some lake enhanced rain showers and cloud cover over western and central NY. There will likely be a window where isolated rain showers perk up across the Finger Lakes and the Southern Tier of NY early Monday morning due to some weak lake and terrain enhancement south of Lake Ontario. There is a narrow corridor of slightly higher PWs (around 0.75 to 1 inch), embedded within the mostly drier air mass, that could interact with some lake influence to produce a period of increased low/mid level cloud cover and isolated rain showers. No significant impacts are expected from this. Later Monday morning the dry air will dominate and allow the skies to clear out and remain clear through Monday night. Temperatures will warm nicely into the mid to upper 70s Monday afternoon with low humidity (dew points in the 50s). A coolish night is expected Mon night with overnight lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level ridging starts to build on Tuesday along with a surface high into the Great Lakes. This large scale suppression combined with a warming air mass will keep conditions quiet/dry and allow the heat to gradually build through the week. Tuesday temperatures and humidity will still be mostly comfortable with highs in the lower 80s and dew points in the 50s...and overnight lows Tue night in the mid to upper 50s. However, by Wed the transition will begin back to more summer- like with highs in the mid to upper 80s and dew points back in the lower 60s. The ridge and large scale suppression will likely still dominate the region on Wednesday, but there is a chance the ridge starts to break down on Thursday and definitely by Friday with increasing chances for scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms. Heat indices in the 90s will return by Thu and Fri as well. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mostly VFR conditions expected until later tonight. A marine layer stratus deck will possibly work its way into AVP towards around midnight and may also push farther north into BGM and ELM during the early morning hours on Sunday. Finally, a frontal system will be approaching the region on Sunday morning and a prefrontal trough could bring some MVFR rain showers into SYR and RME towards the end of the forecast period. Outlook... Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms. Monday through Wednesday..Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...MPK