Office: LIX
FXUS64 KLIX 052326
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
626 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024
The area remains under the H5 weakness draped across the region
from northeast to southwest. There is a subtle H5 ridge over
central Texas, which is having little to do with us as of
now...and especially by tomorrow as it retrogrades over the four
corner states. At the surface a very weak inverted trough resides
over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico. This has been the
primary focus for convection offshore, however, much of this lift
has reminded over the Gulf with only lower portions of Plaquemines
Parish seeing any type of measurable rainfall today. Tonight and
into Sunday the surface trough and upper level TUTT begin to
sharpen slightly and move a bit closer to our CWFA...at least
landbased areas of the CWFA. As it does a few rogue showers will
remain possible along the immediate coast. QPF signal is weak but
not zero so kept a very low/slight chance of POPs for the
immediate coastline of SE LA and MS Gulf Coast. With fewer clouds
around across the northwest half temperatures will climb (under
the higher thicknesses and heights to the northwest). The cooler
locations will be right along the immediate coast where denser
cloudiness may reside.
The low level winds have increased due to pressure gradient
increase between high pressure to our north and the developing TC
across the western Gulf. In fact, over the last couple of hours TS
Milton has indeed developed across the southern Gulf. Through the
short term the only impacts will be an enhancement of marine winds
and seas as well as minor coastal flooding during high tide. In
fact, went ahead and started the advisory a bit early as Shell
Beach started to increase to advisory thresholds. This will linger
likely through the rest of the weekend and into early to mid week
as Milton continues to move eastward toward Florida. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024
As mentioned in the short term...Tropical Storm Milton is forecast
to move generally eastward across the Gulf as an H5 trough moves
southward and a surface cold front pushes through our region. This
will help dry us out both closer to the surface and mid/upper
levels. Again, the main focus in terms of impacts will be marine
impacts across the open waters (see marine section) and the
continuation of possible coastal flooding with the easterly
dynamic fetch remaining in place allowing for water to pile up
little by little. This should start to decrease as the surface
flow shifts to a northerly direction behind the aforementioned
front late Monday or Tuesday.
From this point on early to midweek it looks to turn mostly to a
temperatures forecast with POPs nearing zero. Temperatures will be
very comfortable out there along with lower humidity values with
high pressure settling into the region from north to south. Highs
will be at or just below average for early to mid October and
overnight lower along and north of the I10/12 corridor will drop
off to 60 or perhaps a bit lower, especially drainage areas along
the Pascagoula and Pearl Rivers and interior southwest MS. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024
Mostly VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF cycle. A
lingering shower along the coast is still possible (mainly HUM if
anywhere), but chances decreasing this evening. BTR and MCB are
signaling a slight reduction in visibility in the early morning,
but this is rather low confidence. Included MVFR for now for a
brief time to account for this potential. Otherwise, easterly
winds will decrease overnight after we decouple and then increase
back to 10-20kts by Sunday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024
Easterly winds will continue through the rest of the weekend and
in fact increase gradually in time as pressure gradient tightens
over the area. A more northeasterly wind up to 25 knots could be
produced by interactions between TS Milton well south of our
region and high pressure to our north. Seas, at least the open
Gulf Waters will begin to increase with time as the TC tracks
eastward over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional
SCA will likely be needed through midweek or so...again
specifically for the outer waters. Gradually, as the TC moves
inland over Central Florida, conditions will gradually improve
and pressure gradient will relax just a bit as high pressure
settles into the area from the north. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 66 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 71 91 70 93 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 70 88 68 90 / 10 10 0 0
MSY 74 86 73 88 / 10 10 0 0
GPT 71 86 69 88 / 10 10 0 0
PQL 72 88 69 91 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for LAZ069-070-076-
078.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ536-538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for MSZ086.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ538-550-552-
555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...RDF
Office: LCH
FXUS64 KLCH 060005
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
705 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024
Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the western gulf this morning,
roughly 160 miles east of Tampico. High pressure is also centered
over the mid-Mississippi Valley. The local area is between these
systems which is keeping the breezy east flow in place. Through
the mid levels high pressure is stretched over Texas and across
the mid-Mississippi Valley as well. While deep moisture remains
over the gulf, a drier airmass is across the local area with a
fairly steep gradient from the gulf coast northward.
Through the afternoon diurnal heating may allow a few showers to
develop, but coverage is expected to remain isolated at best.
Lesser coverage, if any, is anticipated farther north into Cen LA
and the lakes region. For those who need or wanted rain,
unfortunately today is the last day for a bit with any chance.
Milton will move toward the east tonight through mid week. A drier
airmass will be pulled south across the area beginning Sunday
with lower dewpoints filtering in through the day. A dry and
cooler forecast is anticipated for the end of the short term into
the extended.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024
A cooler, drier airmass will continue to advect into the region
Tuesday in the wake of Monday's fropa with afternoon highs 5-10
degrees cooler than Monday. Wednesday morning will likely see the
coolest temperatures of the early fall season with lows falling into
the 50s areawide with lower 50s possible across parts of central
Louisiana. Sensible weather will remain largely uniform through the
end of the week as northwesterly flow aloft will keep skies mostly
clear and elongated surface high pressure from the great lakes to
the northern gulf coast will maintain cool, dry conditions on light
northeasterly winds.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024
VFR conditions ongoing across the area with very isolated showers
across parts of coastal SETX and SWLA tapering out of the area
now. CIGs will continue to lift and scatter over the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024
Moderate to occasionally strong easterly winds will prevail
through the weekend between high pressure to the north and Milton
in the Gulf of Mexico. Exercise caution conditions are expected
over the offshore waters through tonight, and SCEC/SCA headlines
will continue through Sunday afternoon.
A cold front is expected to move through Monday, and strong
offshore flow is expected to develop behind the front early next
week. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required from Monday
into Tuesday. Elevated offshore flow is expected to persist
through the latter part of the week.
24/05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 65 90 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 69 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 71 91 70 92 / 0 10 0 0
BPT 70 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ470-472-
475.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...87
Office: SHV
FXUS64 KSHV 060303
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1003 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024
Sfc ridging remains anchored from the OH/TN vallies SW into E TX
this evening, although the higher theta-e air mass has spread
farther W across the remainder of the region (E TX/SE OK) compared
to 24 hrs ago. The evening satellite imagery does reveal an area
of elevated cu cigs that has developed/begun to slowly spread W
along the base of the sfc/low level ridge over Cntrl LA into SE
and portions of Deep E TX, with the latest 00Z NAM suggesting that
these cigs will continue to drift slowly W into the remainder of
Deep E TX overnight. Meanwhile, some patchy cu has also recently
developed over SE AR, which may also drift W into portions of
SCntrl and SW AR overnight as well, which may help to offset the
extent of radiational cooling ongoing across these areas.
Did have to update the forecast to redraw the sky grids based on
these current trends, with the greatest confidence for a partly
cloudy sky across the Srn zones of Deep E TX/Srn sections of
NCntrl LA. Only very minor tweaks to min temps were made tonight,
with the remainder of the forecast on track.
Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.
15
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024
For the 06/00Z TAFs, this afternoon's Cu fields looks to continue
dissipating quickly after sunset, with VFR conditions prevailing
at area terminals throughout this forecast period. As with recent
mornings, brief VIS reductions are possible near 06/12Z, but do
not look to be widespread or long-lived. If any terminals are to
see impacts, KLFK would be the most likely. Otherwise,
redevelopment of a Cu field at or after 06/18Z looks possible.
Winds will become light overnight before shifting to ENE and
picking up during the day to maximum sustained speeds of 5 to 10
kts with gusts of up to 15 kts possible.
/26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 67 94 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 66 93 65 87 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 61 92 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 64 93 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 62 92 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 66 93 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 65 92 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 68 92 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
AVIATION...26
