la discuss
Office: LIX
FXUS64 KLIX 130510
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Scattered storms impacted the region yesterday but outside of
those storms it was a warm one. Many locations that stayed out of
the rain saw highs in the mid 90s while the rest of the area
generally stayed in the lower 90s. Convection dissipated quickly
across the area during the evening and we should remain fairly
rain free through sunrise.
There will be some slight changes to the mid lvl pattern across the
region as the ridge to our east slowly builds west while the
weakness/trough just off to our west begins to lift. Even with the
ridge sliding a little more into the area we will still be on the
western periphery of it and it will not provide enough suppression
to completely shut down convection. This will likely continue to
lead to better rain chances across the western/southwestern half of
the CWA with locations along and east of I-55 the warmest. With h925
temps around 26/27C in those areas highs should have little problem
climbing into the mid 90s tomorrow and then isolated locations could
top out around 97 and possibly 98 as the ridge moves a little more
west and starts to build. As for any heat products we will hold off
on that for now. Afternoon dewpoints have been able to mix out
enough and as long as temps remain the lower to mid 90s most of the
area should remain below adv criteria. That said it will still be
quite warm and even oppressive in areas that aren't able to get a
storm or two to help cool things down. As for Monday that may be the
better chance at getting some areas to reach heat advisory criteria.
Obviously can not rule out one or two strong to severe storms
tomorrow afternoon but overall it should be more of the typical
Summertime convection. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
As for the extended portion of the forecast it looks like it will
be the story of two tales. We will begin rather warm with maybe
somewhat limited convection however for the back half of the work
week and possibly into the weekend we are looking at what may be
multiple days of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms
with locally heavy rain a possibility. Medium range models are in
fairly good agreement through Friday and then the models begin to
diverge on how they handle to mid lvl pattern.
We begin with Tuesday and the ridge likely at its strongest point in
our forecast. It will be centered off to our northeast but it will
nose into the west-central Gulf. Mid lvl hghts will likely be at
their highest that day and h5 temps could finally warm above -6C.
This isn't necessarily going to shut convection down but it will be
far more limited away from coastal areas. Afternoon highs will
likely be the hottest this day and with that it will also be the
best chance of reaching heat advisory criteria across a much larger
section of the CWA.
Wednesday through the rest of the week and into the weekend the
forecast will be dominated by an easterly wave. NHC currently has a
20% chance of this developing into a tropical cyclone over the next
7 days but honestly whether it develops or not this wave will bring
a surge of moisture and with it numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms. We will begin to see a weak trough develop over the
northeastern Gulf and FL late Monday and into Tuesday. As this moves
east it may try to slowly organize and take on Tropical
characteristics Wednesday through Friday. With it we will see a
surge of moisture begin to move in Wednesday with PWs well over 2"
moving in from the ESE and then slowly across the area over the next
24 to 36 hours. This should easily lead to numerous to widespread
convection Wednesday afternoon/evening and again on Thursday. Friday
and into the weekend showers and thunderstorms will be likely but
what happens to the system is a bigger unknown. The system could
become trapped and linger over the area through the weekend and if
that is the case it could lead to multiple days of heavy rainfall.
We will need to keep an eye on the rain potential heading into the
back half of the work week and next weekend. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Overall all terminals are in VFR status however we may see some
stratus try to infiltrate from the west during the early morning
hours. MCB and possibly BTR have the best chance of seeing these
low clouds. If they do get these low clouds it will be around
2500-3k ft. However, those clouds if they materialize will mix
out quickly after sunrise. Convection will develop again during
the late mornign and afternoon hours and could impact most
termianls at some point. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Overall not much to say on the marine side. High pressure
dominates the Gulf right now and light winds will continue with
the typical diurnal fluctuations near the coast and the nocturnal
jet east of the MS delta. Heading into the middle and back half of
the work week may be a little different. We will likely see a
weak trough maybe even a sfc low move west across the northern
Gulf however at this time it will be very week and winds will
remain on the light side. Biggest concern remains convection as
showers and thunderstorms should continue to be a concern during
the overnight and morning hours. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 72 93 73 / 50 10 40 0
BTR 92 75 93 75 / 60 10 60 0
ASD 93 74 94 74 / 50 10 50 10
MSY 93 78 93 78 / 60 10 70 0
GPT 92 75 94 77 / 30 10 40 10
PQL 93 73 94 75 / 30 10 30 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
FXUS64 KLIX 130517 CCA
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Scattered storms impacted the region yesterday but outside of
those storms it was a warm one. Many locations that stayed out of
the rain saw highs in the mid 90s while the rest of the area
generally stayed in the lower 90s. Convection dissipated quickly
across the area during the evening and we should remain fairly
rain free through sunrise.
There will be some slight changes to the mid lvl pattern across the
region as the ridge to our east slowly builds west while the
weakness/trough just off to our west begins to lift. Even with the
ridge sliding a little more into the area we will still be on the
western periphery of it and it will not provide enough suppression
to completely shut down convection. This will likely continue to
lead to better rain chances across the western/southwestern half of
the CWA with locations along and east of I-55 the warmest. With h925
temps around 26/27C in those areas highs should have little problem
climbing into the mid 90s tomorrow and then isolated locations could
top out around 97 and possibly 98 as the ridge moves a little more
west and starts to build. As for any heat products we will hold off
on that for now. Afternoon dewpoints have been able to mix out
enough and as long as temps remain the lower to mid 90s most of the
area should remain below adv criteria. That said it will still be
quite warm and even oppressive in areas that aren't able to get a
storm or two to help cool things down. As for Monday that may be the
better chance at getting some areas to reach heat advisory criteria.
Obviously can not rule out one or two strong to severe storms
tomorrow afternoon but overall it should be more of the typical
Summertime convection. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
As for the extended portion of the forecast it looks like it will
be the story of two tales. We will begin rather warm with maybe
somewhat limited convection however for the back half of the work
week and possibly into the weekend we are looking at what may be
multiple days of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms
with locally heavy rain a possibility. Medium range models are in
fairly good agreement through Friday and then the models begin to
diverge on how they handle to mid lvl pattern.
We begin with Tuesday and the ridge likely at its strongest point in
our forecast. It will be centered off to our northeast but it will
nose into the west-central Gulf. Mid lvl hghts will likely be at
their highest that day and h5 temps could finally warm above -6C.
This isn't necessarily going to shut convection down but it will be
far more limited away from coastal areas. Afternoon highs will
likely be the hottest this day and with that it will also be the
best chance of reaching heat advisory criteria across a much larger
section of the CWA.
Wednesday through the rest of the week and into the weekend the
forecast will be dominated by an easterly wave. NHC currently has a
20% chance of this developing into a tropical cyclone over the next
7 days but honestly whether it develops or not this wave will bring
a surge of moisture and with it numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms. We will begin to see a weak trough develop over the
northeastern Gulf and FL late Monday and into Tuesday. As this moves
east it may try to slowly organize and take on Tropical
characteristics Wednesday through Friday. With it we will see a
surge of moisture begin to move in Wednesday with PWs well over 2"
moving in from the ESE and then slowly across the area over the next
24 to 36 hours. This should easily lead to numerous to widespread
convection Wednesday afternoon/evening and again on Thursday. Friday
and into the weekend showers and thunderstorms will be likely but
what happens to the system is a bigger unknown. The system could
become trapped and linger over the area through the weekend and if
that is the case it could lead to multiple days of heavy rainfall.
We will need to keep an eye on the rain potential heading into the
back half of the work week and next weekend. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Overall all terminals are in VFR status however we may see some
stratus try to infiltrate from the west during the early morning
hours. MCB and possibly BTR have the best chance of seeing these
low clouds. If they do get these low clouds it will be around
2500-3k ft. However, those clouds if they materialize will mix
out quickly after sunrise. Convection will develop again during
the late mornign and afternoon hours and could impact most
termianls at some point. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Overall not much to say on the marine side. High pressure
dominates the Gulf right now and light winds will continue with
the typical diurnal fluctuations near the coast and the nocturnal
jet east of the MS delta. Heading into the middle and back half of
the work week may be a little different. We will likely see a
weak trough maybe even a sfc low move west across the northern
Gulf however at this time it will be very week and winds will
remain on the light side. Biggest concern remains convection as
showers and thunderstorms should continue to be a concern during
the overnight and morning hours. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 72 93 73 / 50 10 40 0
BTR 92 75 93 75 / 60 10 60 0
ASD 93 74 94 74 / 50 10 50 10
MSY 93 78 93 78 / 60 10 70 0
GPT 92 75 94 77 / 30 10 40 10
PQL 93 73 94 75 / 30 10 30 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
Office: LCH
FXUS64 KLCH 130528
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1228 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Nocturnal showers and a few storms will continue moving inland
through early Sunday morning.
-Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
as an upper low remains in the vicinity
-An upper ridge will build over the area for the first half of
the week, lowering rain chances and increasing temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
An upper low is centered over the northwest gulf this morning while
an upper ridge is over the southeast states. Locally, a somewhat
diffluent pattern exists overhead between these features. Toward the
surface a ridge extends from the Atlantic into the northern gulf
coast, as typical this time of year. This is providing the continuous
light onshore flow.
With the upper low in the vicinity, a steady flow of nocturnal
showers can be anticipated through the early morning hours. As
diurnal heating gets underway Sunday, additional inland convection
is anticipated. Temperatures will be about normal for the date.
Early in the week the upper ridge centered near the Florida -
Georgia line will build west. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms are
still anticipated Monday as the upper low will remain centered off
the coast of SE TX, however it will be stretching and weakening
through the day.
The upper ridge will strengthen Tuesday with pops decreasing
farther. Isolated to widely scattered storms are still expected in
the afternoon, however with the lack of widespread afternoon
convection, temperatures will increase a degree or two from
Sunday and Monday. Tuesday's highs are forecast to be in the mid
to upper 90s away from the coast with the apparent temps at
isolated locations reaching to around or near 108F.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Hot and mostly dry conditions will start the extended as the upper
ridge remains in place and generally isolated afternoon convection
is expected.
Beyond Wednesday rain chances may increase again as a trough of low
pressure develops over then northern gulf coast. This will serve to
decrease temps back to normal levels while increasing rain chances,
however confidence in the overall pattern and where the trough
develops is low.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
A few showers will move into the coastal areas through the morning
with scattered to numerous thunderstorms possible by late morning
through the afternoon Sunday. This may cause brief periods of
lower vis and ceilings. Winds will be generally light and
southerly.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
High pressure extending across the northern Gulf will maintain
light onshore winds and low seas through late next week. Daily
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the coastal
waters through Monday with lower rain chances Tuesday and
Wednesday as upper level ridging builds across the northern gulf.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Light southerly winds will maintain dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s through next week. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values
are expected to range from 50 - 70%. Daily thunderstorms will
develop from late morning through early evening through Monday. An
upper level ridge building into the region will lower daily rain
chances Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 93 73 94 73 / 50 10 40 0
LCH 91 76 92 76 / 60 10 60 10
LFT 90 75 91 75 / 80 10 70 0
BPT 92 75 92 75 / 40 10 60 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
Office: SHV
FXUS64 KSHV 130502
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1202 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
- One more day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the Four State Region today.
- More in the way of scattered convection on Monday before rain
chances dwindle as the work week continues.
- With lower rain chances during the week, temperatures should
begin to warm with near Heat Advisory criteria possible later
this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Can't complain about rainfall in July as we could be dealing with
triple digit heat and drought conditions but unfortunately with
the storms can sometimes come strong to severe thunderstorms as we
saw across portions of NE TX and SE OK on Saturday. Currently
dealing with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms once
again lined up across our far northwest zones and while these
storms are not severe, they are producing locally heavy downpours
and thus we will need to watch for some local area flooding as we
approach sunrise. The players in the creation of all this
convection continues to be a longwave trough across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northern Texas which is wedged in between upper
ridging across the NE Gulf of America and upper ridging across the
Southwest Great Basin. PVA just downstream of the longwave trough
across Eastern Texas and Eastern Oklahoma is providing the
necessary lift which happens to coincide with a moisture tongue of
2+ inch PWATS across Central Texas into the Middle Red River
Valley. The convection contracts towards the upper trough during
the overnight hours with the aid of a 30kt southwesterly low level
jet but with the aid of daytime heating, we should see this
convection expanding north and east, encompassing much of our
region today with additional convection developing along residual
outflow boundaries and pockets of instability. For that reason,
did raise NBM pops slightly areawide given how coverage was on
Saturday and given the fact that the above mentioned parameters
are still in place today.
For Monday, the longwave trough does begin to fill slightly but as
it does, it's closer to our northwest zones and therefore, our
northwest half will be the favored area for scattered convection
with more widely scattered convection elsewhere. Have followed the
NBM lead of curtailing pops back to isolated/low end chance
variety across our northeast and eastern half only as there is
still a remnant shear axis across our northern zones for Tuesday
but Tuesday should be the beginning of what will be a transition
day for hotter temperatures as upper ridging tries to retrograde
slowly westward by the middle and later half of the work week. The
fly in the ointment to this scenario is a tropical disturbance
that may try to undercut the upper ridging across the Gulf Coast
States, hugging the northern Gulf coast Wed into Thu. If this
pattern holds true, would not be surprised to see more in the way
of higher pops in the mid to late week timeframe but for now, will
continue to follow the drier NBM which happens to coincide with
the drier operational ECMWF through the later half of the extended
package. If this drier, hotter pattern verifies, then we will be
looking at near triple digit heat by mid to late week which
combined with high afternoon humidities would produce heat indices
worthy of Heat Advisory headlines.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Most sites have VFR conditions prevailing with tempo TSRA over the
next few hours. Storms on the eastern half of the region should
gradually diminish over that period of time, with some recent
models having the storms in East Texas hanging on later. I have
the East Texas sites and KTXK being dry starting around 13/07z,
but that may change depending on how things trend with the current
convection. LA sites may have some MVFR/IFR cigs around daybreak
that will gradually lift over a few hours. I have more convection
beginning across the area as early as 13/17z, that will become
VCTS everywhere by the afternoon. /57/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Spotter activation is not likely today through tonight as widespread
damaging wind gusts are not forecast. However, an isolated storm
or two could reach severe limits producing damaging wind gusts and
excessive heavy rainfall that could result in area flooding.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 93 76 94 77 / 60 30 40 10
MLU 93 75 95 75 / 50 20 40 0
DEQ 86 70 87 70 / 70 50 50 10
TXK 92 73 93 75 / 60 40 40 10
ELD 93 72 92 72 / 60 30 50 10
TYR 90 73 90 74 / 60 40 30 10
GGG 92 73 92 74 / 60 30 40 10
LFK 93 74 94 74 / 60 30 40 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...57
FXUS64 KSHV 130530
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1230 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
- One more day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the Four State Region today.
- More in the way of scattered convection on Monday before rain
chances dwindle as the work week continues.
- With lower rain chances during the week, temperatures should
begin to warm with near Heat Advisory criteria possible later
this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Can't complain about rainfall in July as we could be dealing with
triple digit heat and drought conditions but unfortunately with
the storms can sometimes come strong to severe thunderstorms as we
saw across portions of NE TX and SE OK on Saturday. Currently
dealing with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms once
again lined up across our far northwest zones and while these
storms are not severe, they are producing locally heavy downpours
and thus we will need to watch for some local area flooding as we
approach sunrise. The players in the creation of all this
convection continues to be a longwave trough across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northern Texas which is wedged in between upper
ridging across the NE Gulf of America and upper ridging across the
Southwest Great Basin. PVA just downstream of the longwave trough
across Eastern Texas and Eastern Oklahoma is providing the
necessary lift which happens to coincide with a moisture tongue of
2+ inch PWATS across Central Texas into the Middle Red River
Valley. The convection contracts towards the upper trough during
the overnight hours with the aid of a 30kt southwesterly low level
jet but with the aid of daytime heating, we should see this
convection expanding north and east, encompassing much of our
region today with additional convection developing along residual
outflow boundaries and pockets of instability. For that reason,
did raise NBM pops slightly areawide given how coverage was on
Saturday and given the fact that the above mentioned parameters
are still in place today.
For Monday, the longwave trough does begin to fill slightly but as
it does, it's closer to our northwest zones and therefore, our
northwest half will be the favored area for scattered convection
with more widely scattered convection elsewhere. Have followed the
NBM lead of curtailing pops back to isolated/low end chance
variety across our northeast and eastern half only as there is
still a remnant shear axis across our northern zones for Tuesday
but Tuesday should be the beginning of what will be a transition
day for hotter temperatures as upper ridging tries to retrograde
slowly westward by the middle and later half of the work week. The
fly in the ointment to this scenario is a tropical disturbance
that may try to undercut the upper ridging across the Gulf Coast
States, hugging the northern Gulf coast Wed into Thu. If this
pattern holds true, would not be surprised to see more in the way
of higher pops in the mid to late week timeframe but for now, will
continue to follow the drier NBM which happens to coincide with
the drier operational ECMWF through the later half of the extended
package. If this drier, hotter pattern verifies, then we will be
looking at near triple digit heat by mid to late week which
combined with high afternoon humidities would produce heat indices
worthy of Heat Advisory headlines.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
For the 13/06Z TAFs, VFR CIGS in the form of a mix of mid to high
level clouds look to continue overnight, aside from areas of
showers and storms across northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas,
with associated drops to lower VFR or MVFR CIGS. Impacts look to
be generally limited to KTXK. If convection pushes south to the
I-20 corridor, will amend as needed. Daybreak looks to see more
widespread drops to MVFR or IFR CIGs with associated brief VSBY
drops possible, especially where rainfall fell the previous
afternoon, recovering through late morning and returning to VFR by
the afternoon. Light south winds will continue overnight,
becoming southwesterly and increasing to sustained speeds of 5 to
10 kts during the day, with gusts of up to 15 kts possible.
/26/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Spotter activation is not likely today through tonight as widespread
damaging wind gusts are not forecast. However, an isolated storm
or two could reach severe limits producing damaging wind gusts and
excessive heavy rainfall that could result in area flooding.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 94 76 94 77 / 60 30 40 10
MLU 93 75 95 75 / 50 20 40 0
DEQ 86 70 87 70 / 70 50 50 10
TXK 92 73 93 74 / 60 40 40 10
ELD 93 72 92 73 / 60 30 50 10
TYR 90 73 90 74 / 60 40 30 10
GGG 92 73 92 74 / 60 30 40 10
LFK 93 74 94 74 / 60 30 40 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
