Office: BOX
FXUS61 KBOX 071856
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
156 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic front moves through overnight into Monday morning with a
low chance for brief scattered snow showers, primarily for northern
MA. Well below normal temperatures Monday with an arctic airmass
overhead. More unsettled overall next week with a few systems moving
through the region. This will bring periodic chances for rain/snow
showers starting Tuesday night, continuing into Saturday. Very
gradual warming trend into Tuesday with highs around normal
Wednesday/Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages...
* A mostly dry arctic front drops through overnight bringing in a
period of below normal temperatures.
Quiet end to the weekend in progress; main changes this afternoon
are in influx of mid/high clouds ahead of a weak mid level shortwave
that crosses northern New England overnight. At the surface a
moisture starved arctic front drops through between 8pm and 3am.
Again, moisture is so limited that it will more than likely be a dry
frontal passage; worst case is some light snow showers in northern
MA amounting to a coating of snow. A much colder airmass moves
overhead with 850 mb temps dropping from -7C Sunday to -17C Monday.
As the surface low deepens over the Gulf of Maine Monday the
pressure gradient increases so breezy winds will make highs in the
20s feel like the teens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Well below normal temperatures.
High pressure builds overhead Monday night and the boundary layer
decouples; this allows the already cold airmass to cool even more.
Expect lows in the single digits (inland) and low/mid teens (along
the coast).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Periodic chances for precipitation next week starting Tuesday
night, continuing through Saturday.
* Uncertainty in pattern details (timing, amounts, precip type),
especially Wednesday onward.
Rather good overall agreement with the synoptic pattern through
Tuesday. After then, the timing and amplitude differences continue
to grow into next weekend. The overall pattern suggests a deepening
mid level trough over the eastern USA for the second half of this
upcoming week. The largest detail differences involve the evolution
of a mid level cutoff somewhere between Hudson Bay and Quebec. Our
proximity to this particular feature will play a role in how much
lift can be used to generate cold advection showers across our
region.
Surface high pressure should move offshore Tuesday, permitting a low
pressure moving into the Great Lakes to push its associated fronts
across southern New England Tuesday night into Wednesday. Not
expecting a lot of precipitation during this time, but some light
snow will be possible at night, and especially across the higher
terrain. Anticipating more rain than snow Wednesday as temperatures
rise to near normal levels.
Late next week could feature some cold advection showers, but there
are no strong lifting mechanisms anticipated at this time. There are
also questions about the amount of moisture which could be
available. While there is a prolonged period where these showers are
possible, there should be many dry hours late next week. There is
higher confidence in the arrival of colder air by the end of next
weekend with below normal temperatures returning to our region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z TAF Update:
This afternoon...High Confidence.
VFR. VRB winds.
Tonight...High Confidence.
VFR. Light and variable winds increase and become NW toward 12Z
with cold frontal passage, gusting 15 to 20 kts.
Monday...High Confidence.
VFR. Gusty NW winds with gusts 20-30 kts. Winds gradually
decreasing after 18Z.
Monday night...High Confidence.
VFR. Winds light and variable.
KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SN, slight chance RA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Monday night...High confidence.
Light S winds become NW tonight around 10-15 kt. Seas 2-3 ft.
Winds increase with a cold front Sunday night/Monday morning
with seas building to 5-7 ft over the outer waters through Mon.
Gusts between 20-30 kt possible across all waters Mon morning,
with occasional gusts to 35 kt possible for the northern outer
waters. Small Craft Advisories in effect for the waters
starting at 06z tonight, continuing through 06z Tue for the
outer waters and ending at 21z today for the coastal waters.
Monday night...High confidence.
N winds 10-15 kts gusting 15-20 kts early, diminishing through
the night. Seas decreasing to 2-4 ft after midnight.
Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain.
Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Chance of rain.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for
ANZ231>235-237-251.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/BW
MARINE...Belk/BW
